The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
Transcript preview
Preview only
Before we get started with today's show, I just wanna take a couple minutes to talk about permission list for the next conference presented by BlockWorks. It's happening in June in Brooklyn, New York, and it's all for the developers and builders in crypto. So if you're interested in really understanding how the nuts and bolts of the crypto industry are being built and you wanna learn more, go ahead and get your ticket. I'm gonna be there as well as with Quinn and the rest of the Ford guidance gang. It's gonna be a ton of fun. So use the code f g 10 at tech checkout, and you'll get 10% off your
Yeah. And I'm much, nice to always get through another of the most important day in weeks since the last FOMC, and there's a whole lot of nothing as expected, I think. And, now we wait and see until more China fake China headlines come out or other trade deals or if there's a war first or we'll see. Feels
like a whole lot of everything and also a whole lot of nothing this week compared to last week. So it just feels like we had almost too much to talk about. But, yeah, we're we're recording about half an hour after the Fed press conference just ended. And, you know, this this meeting was going to always be a bit of a snoozer. You know, it's it's not a dot plot meeting, and everybody expected no no change to the Fed funds that they're gonna pause. So, really, all eyes were on the press conference to get a bit of a gauge on whether there'd be any sort of hints towards a a June cut, or even certai
Yeah. I I agree. I don't think I didn't really have high super high conviction, as to which way the press conference or minute or statement would lean other than not significantly in either direction and that it doesn't really matter, for risk because I I think they're, you know, purposely delayed here. So, exactly, totally agree with what you said. He didn't come out swinging, to send a hawkish message. He just said that they, you know, they see the data as it is relentlessly harped on a strong economy, and and how they think it's still solid and, that they just need to see, you know, the eff
think we're both on the same camp that June is is pretty much a write off now. You know? It's either the job support next month has to be just so bad, you know, talking, like, probably, like, a 20 bps increase in the unemployment rate at least to get them moving on that side of things. And, you know, it's really interesting. Like, I had Neil Dutta. I I just interviewed him who's just such a wicked economist, and he's, you know, he was the one who was fading the recession calls in 2022 when I think a % of economist surveys were saying guaranteed recession. He was right on that. And now he's he'
Do you? At least one cut, right, was was was react was was was late. They that that that's probably true. But but, to to barrel through with a hundred after, you know, things were fine, after one in September, yeah, that that was, over the top. I thought Warren's tweet was interesting, because, you know, it it almost implies some some politicking, which I think everybody can agree. I I don't think they're egregiously maybe doing it, but but they all clearly have their opinions on tariffs being really bad. So, or some form of disagreement. So they as he mentioned, they they don't wanna do somet
It's it's interesting. It feels like, you know, the continuation of what we were talking about last week of this mirage in in the hard data that will continue to remain resilient is pretty much right off the cuff of the press conference. Paul was talking about how he was referring to PDFP, whi
Keep exploring with a free account.
A free account preserves the short preview. Upgrade to Pro for the full transcript and episode chat.