The Fed & Treasury Aren’t Backing Down | Weekly Roundup LIVE @ DAS
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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Okay. So I wanna ask before we get into it, raise your hand if you've listened to the Ford Guidance podcast ever. Just curious who's in here. Nice. Okay. So you got some listeners. Wicked. Well, we'll spare ourselves too much of an introduction in that case, but, you know, we do have the live stream, so we will introduce ourselves anyway. But my name is Felix. I'm the host of the Ford Guidance podcast. I interview macro thought leaders every week, and then I also host the roundup alongside Quinn Thompson. Feel free to introduce yourself. Hey,
guys. Good to be here. Quinn Thompson, founder and CIO of Lucker Capital. We are a global discretionary macro hedge fund with a outsized focus on crypto and digital assets.
Hey, everyone. My name is Mike Abledo. I'm one of the cofounders of pod, of BlockWorks and a avid listener of the Forward Guidance podcast. Whenever they have me on, I'll yap with you guys too.
Yeah. Occasional participant and a leader of the guys' emporium in in that respect, at least cult culturally and philosophically. We
had Tyler here for the full guys' emporium, you know, reunion rip.
I know. I know. He missed that guy a lot, but he's off doing some big things right now. Okay. So we are recording this a couple hours after the FOMC meeting, and there's a lot to unpack there. So we're gonna start the conversation by just level setting on what's going on. So going into it, obviously, the expectation was for them to not really do anything. They're gonna pause. There's no expectations of a rate cut, no expectations of rate hike. That wasn't the news. What was the news is trying to get an understanding is how is the Fed and Jerome Powell thinking about what's going on on the fisc
So I like to look at the meeting over meeting change and, obviously, the statement and rhetoric and press conference, but also the the dot plots, which only come out quarterly. And when you compare the two, obviously, we had growth expectations down with GDP lower, unemployment rate higher, and inflation expectations higher, which is very stagflationary, with the median or mean, interest rate projection cuts the same. However, under the surface, you had the distribution move to a much more hawkish stance. You had the number of of participants expecting one or fewer cuts go from four to eight a
Yeah. I think, I think that it wasn't particularly good or particularly bad. There was another, interview that went live today with, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen, where he outlined in, quite a bit of detail how, Treasury and, honestly, this administration is thinking about growth, inflation, etcetera, over the course of the next couple of years. And I think if you just look at this, I think this administration and politics is in the driver's seat at the moment, much more so than inflation or the Fed. And so if you look at this administration, they are very, very focused on balancing the bud
Yeah. I think that's the good point to bring up is the direction and sort of, who's moving the pieces on monetary and fiscal policy. I I firmly believe it really starts with the treasury, and, people probably don't account for how closely intertwined fed and treasury policy actually is. It's been very obvious the last number of years, and I don't think it's changed in in the new administration. In fact, I think Powell, much probably against what consensus view is of this tension between the Trump White House and Powell is actually much more aligned interests this go around, at least now. You k
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