The Hidden Fractures Behind America’s “Resilient” Economy | Aahan Menon
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Most big picture, like where the economy is gonna be six months from now, twelve months from now, like all that type of stuff, is actually, like, completely useless for trading markets. What we do know, like, with a high degree of certainty, that we do have a wealth distribution problem, and there is also an asset ownership distribution problem. While the CapEx is ongoing, that is business cycle stimulative. It is good for profits. Don't get in front of that train. I'm a nonbeliever in AI just being this absolutely transformative thing, which takes us to 6% real GDP growth a year. But at the s
by Grayscale, your trusted gateway to more than 30 different crypto investment products. You'll hear more about them later in the episode. Nothing said on Ford Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks. Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed. Alright, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Ford Guidance. And j
Hey. Glad to be on. Congrats on the new role and the continued success of the show.
Yeah. Thank you. I I appreciate that a lot. Yeah. It's it's been a minute since we last chatted and you I feel like oftentimes when people try to get your insight on the economy, it's it's really important to keep in mind what time horizon you're speaking to because you have some models that are, you know, intraday, you have some that are just on a weekly basis and then you have some high level macroeconomic views and I think it's really important to piece apart which phase of that we're talking about. So let's start with that broad picture, high timeframe outlook on the economy and how that g
Yeah, I mean, there's a lot. And I understand when you talk to somebody like me that's doing systematic macro and doing intraday strategies and then slower strategies and stuff, you're like, Goddamn, what the fuck is this guy's view? I don't know what he's talking about. I get it. It's a daily struggle for me. But I think, you know, the basic idea is you want to start with the big picture like we are in this conversation and then kind of work your way. You get faster and faster as you get to the positioning views, right? So the view on the economy is never going to change overnight. That's not
Okay, so let's go under the hood a little bit on the growth outlook. I to tap into specifically around consumption because you mentioned there that there is a subset of economic participants that just keep spending. And I would love to hear a bit about your perspective on where are those incomes coming from and where's the marginal growth of those incomes coming from that keeps them be able to keep spending? Because it just, it feels like the past few years is just this constant thing of people thinking, oh, you know, look at that, look at where the savings rate is going, etcetera, that they'r
Yeah. So the consumption numbers, I think, one, you're not going to get a clear answer. It's going to be very hard for you, at least in a timely way, Maybe you can use the flow of funds accounts and do some back solving, but most of the flow of funds accounts data is super laggy, like a year plus laggy sometimes. And so back solving, like where is the spending coming from and stuff like that, will end up being, for most people that listen to this show, more of an academic exercise and understanding than it'll be
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