The Iran War is Accelerating the End of Globalism | Jacob Shapiro
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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It literally did not come into my imagination that this would be a longer war, that this would be a war for longer than three to four weeks because the asymmetry of the advantages here go in Iran's favor. But all that really matters right now is how many ships are going in and out of the strait. Physical shortages are starting to show up in East Asian economies. If we keep going on this path, if we are still here in a month talking about this, we'll be talking about those shortages moving from East Asia to Europe, even to the Western Hemisphere. There's a scenario here where maybe President Tr
is Nothing said on Ford Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks. Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed. As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, conditions apply. Do your own research. Everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Ford Guidance. And joining me this week is Jacob Shapiro
Thanks for having me. I don't know that I can promise much guidance, but it can certainly be forward. And yeah, I I find that the pace of I mean, obviously, the last month has been nuts. But really ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, it feels like it has not let up in terms of being asked to come on and speak to either audiences or to do interviews. Like that was that was definitely the moment where the world woke up and said geopolitics is back.
Yeah. Yeah. A 100%. Geopolitics is back and back more than ever in over the last month. So obviously, topic du jour is Iran and everything going on there in the Strait Of Formuse. We'd love for for those that just have not been as tuned into how you've been thinking about this crisis and the development of it. If you could just walk through your initial framework going into the initial strikes at the February, and then just how that the sequence of events have evolved and how your framework has evolved up to basically now the April.
Yeah, I'll try to make this succinct and if I'm failing, hope you will, you know, get the hook in here and get me off or tell me to And be I'll also just give you by way of background, I'm a global analyst now and I'm, I'm especially in the last couple of years have been directly tying geopolitical analysis to active investing and investment positions and things like that. But I cut my teeth as a Middle East analyst. My academic training is in The Middle East. My languages, expertise is all in The Middle East. And I've, it's always been funny to me that as a geopolitical analyst, in some sense
There we are. Okay. That's a great foundation. I wanna move in and isolate towards understanding what are the actual important things to look at for economicmarket consequences. So you mentioned how you are very focused on understanding how to track these geopolitical events and moving them towards some sort of tangible investment frameworks or macro analysis. Obviously this is a macro podcast. So the number one question I think that people listening to this are trying to figure out is, okay, there's a million headlines a day right now. Some of them move markets, some of them don't. There's a
Yeah, I want to answer that question in two ways. The first is that a, is that a macro time horizon and when I say macro time horizon, I mean over a three to five year time horizon. So I did not think The United S
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