The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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Crypto's premier institutional conference is returning to New York on March. We're hosting one of the world's best crypto conferences for institutional and professionals alike. It's gonna be a ton of fun. I'm gonna be there hosting a variety of different panels. I'll be doing a fireside chat with Mohammed El Erian, a different macro panel with Jim Bianco and Joseph Wang. And we're also gonna be doing a live Ford guidance round up there where myself, Tyler, and Quinn will be chopping it up live for the guys' Emporium. So make sure to get your tickets. It's gonna sell out quick. I know it. It's
Felix. Thanks for having me.
Yeah. Yeah. Really excited to have you here. So, as this is your first time on the show, we'd just love to have you just, give a little bit about yourself, how you approach markets, and what's your overall just macro framework for how you think about it.
Yeah. Sure. Well, you know, I've been doing this for thirty five years now. So, that's it's as hard for me to say as it is probably to hear, maybe harder. Look, I came to the markets like everybody else does or most people do, which is from a fundamental discipline, you know, thinking about free cash flows, thinking about enterprise values, etcetera. So my formal training as a CFA charter holder is in fundamentals. But I became disenfranchised, with the fundamentals not because they were always wrong, but just it was almost overwhelming, you know, how to differentiate between, different things
know, you guys put out some really great work. We've had, Neil Dodd on the show a couple times now, and he's had some very excellent calls over the last couple years of of fading the recession calls back in 2022, '20 '20 '3. And I know he's a bit more concerned on the growth outlook now. So I'll be very interested to hear about, contrasting your views and have you things as as bit more of a market practitioner and technician and and see how we can bring that all together. So, yeah, super excited for that. I will start with you actually sent over a chart pack, and I just wanna pull up your your
Well, look. One of the things that we do is is we are market practitioners. Right? We're not economists. And so, you know, I think one of the things that economists do and, frankly, a lot of of, investors is they have this default that whatever's happening in the economy must be, happening in the markets. And that's not always right. They're the markets tend to be a lead mechanism. That's why they're they're really so tricky because a lot of times when they're bottoming or starting to accelerate, the news is, almost as bad as you can possibly imagine. Right? So one of the things that we did he
I love that framework because, you know, when you look at the bottom left, when I when I see that, I just think about the the regime from basically, 02/2009 to 2020, right before COVID, where we had, you know, low inflation, somewhat low growth too, but still that provided that tailwind for for risk assets. And and now we've shifted into this regime where, inflation is is a lot more ever present in a lot of different factors. I would love to hear about how you're trying to piece apart the you know, obviously, you know, you try to quantify it down into this this specific regime that you can mov
No. They're great questions because there there are a lot of crosscurrents going on and and, you know, we we we don't have a mandate in our firm. Right? So if Neil if Neil's calling for a recession and we see a bull market, it just is what it is. You know, we don't, we don't, impinge on other people's sort of intelle
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