The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
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Scale is the blockchain that's truly built different. Explore more at scale.space/ecosystem, and follow them on x at scale network. What's up, everybody? Before we get into the show, just a quick announcement here. For those that were longtime listeners of On the Margin, you'll notice that there's actually a new rebrand and new show that just launched this week. It's called Supply Shock, and it's hosted by Pete Rizzo, who's a Bitcoin OG. The show is gonna be diving deep into all the news about Bitcoin, current innovations, and tying it back through historical lens that only somebody who's been
great. Good to be here. Love, love these conversations. You guys feel best.
It's no, Vanna White on here, but, you gotta deal with me and Felix. Oh,
okay. I thought you're talking about me. I thought that come on, guys. Yeah.
This will be a fun one. It's gonna be a bit more of a of a back and forth chat as opposed to the the the discussion we had pretty much the day after the election back in November. And, you know, to say the least, a lot has changed since then, and and we're we're getting a bit of a better line of sight into how things are starting to to fall and where the cards are are falling. So we'll definitely get into a lot of that. Cool. Well, Quinn, I'll let you kick us off here and and ask the first question to chime here and and get us going.
Yeah. So I I think, we wanna kinda start high level macro and and then dive into some of the near term markets things. But but, you know, recently, we've had very hot inflation prints couple weeks ago. We started to see some maybe poor housing data, slower economic data trickle in a bit, maybe some some remnants of of the growth scare middle of last year. And, Jim, you've been a vocal state inflation advocate in talking about this in the broader context of of kind of where we're headed. Where do you think we go in the macro from here? What do you think maybe the probability of recession is in
There's this important idea of that, and I've talked about this in other places, but I really think it's important for people to absorb and that that the market leads the economy. And I think so many people think the economy is central much like that we talk about how people think stocks and bonds are central and derivatives are a derivative, but the whole thing is dynamic in one row reflects together. The same is true for markets writ large versus the economy. People think that markets are efficient because they see the, recession coming. Almost every recession is led by a market decline. It'
Scale is the blockchain that's truly built different. Forget gas fees and waiting. Scale offers a seamless web three experience with fast, fee free transactions. Whether it's gaming, AI, or next gen dApps, Scale is here to power your future. Explore more at scale.space/ecosystem and follow them on x at scale network. Something I wanna throw at you both just to contextualize what you just portrayed there, Chen, is that, you know, if you think about this recent inflation print that came out, couple weeks ago, core CPI came out point four month over month. Big jump from the point three trend that
It's both. It's a loop. Right? As I was mentioning, everybody wants it to be linear. Unfortunately Yeah. The world doesn't work that way. The problem with bringing the ten year lower is it stimulates the economy. Right? And then that rekindles inflation. We have been trying to, as a country, to to keep inflation at bay by rising raising interest rates. Right? And despite rising interest rates, inflation has continued to be high. And i
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