The New Regime People Don’t Want To Accept | Jim Bianco
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What's up, everybody? Right before we get into the show here, just wanna give a quick shout out for our next BlockWorks conference coming up in just over a month. Permissionless four is happening June, and it's a crypto conference all for the developers and builders in the space. We're gonna be hosting it right in the heart of Brooklyn, New York, and it's gonna be a ton of fun. There's gonna be a lot of fantastic speakers, and the whole Ford guidance crew is gonna be there. Myself, Tyler, Quinn, we're gonna be doing a live roundup. There's gonna be some wicked community events. Come meet us, h
We all have TDS. It's just what degree do we have it. So whether it's it's the loss of American exceptionalism, which is an insulting statement on its own that's only really been coined by a bunch of salty Europeans, you know, or whether or not it's now taco or or it's it's the soft data or whatever it is. I think people want things to go bad because they wanna blame Trump. They want something to blame Trump about.
I think okay. So I just had to hit record there. Jim Bianco and I are here on forward guidance. And and literally within ten seconds, we just got straight into it. And the the theme at hand is that people are completely off guard and and just can't come to terms with the economy as it stands today. And yeah. Like, you've we've talked on conferences before. We've talked many times. I've heard you in tons of podcasts since, like, 2021 talking about how the economy has changed now permanently, and people can't come to terms with it.
You know, you said it too nicely. What I said off camera five seconds ago is everybody's got it fucking wrong. You know, it's just been completely off base is what they've been talking about. And just so just to bring the crowd up to speed here, we just got the job opening labor turnover report for April, the JOLTS report. The headline number in the JOLTS report is the number of open jobs in the in the country. It went up from 7,100,000 open jobs to 7,390,000 open jobs. In April, it went up. April. April was the month that the smartest and best people told me the soft date is collapsing. That'
%. I mean, even back then, that that q one GDP print, the only reason it was negative was import front running. And a lot of that was gold. And in reality, like, consumption was solid. Investment surged that month. And then now here we are again. And, yeah, we're seeing the obviously, a lot of that whipsaw on that GDP now print right now that we're seeing above four is is because of the the imports that are reversing the other side of things. But beneath that, there's also still a very strong consumer. So, overall, like, let's just let's just hit it hit it over people's head here a little bit
Yeah. No. No. I I I I agree with you. I mean, as far as, I'll take the vibes part first. You know? I love Kara Scanlon, and she does great work. She's coined the vibe session. There is no such thing. I'm sorry. There really is no such thing, as a vibe session. And as far as the soft data goes, I mean, even in April, I was kinda saying this, but I was kinda yelling into a vacuum. Nobody was listening. I said soft data, the survey data, people's opinions, it's a lagging indicator. It's not a leading indicator. If first, the real economy moves, how many people get jobs, how many people are buying
rate cuts?
Never ever asked the question, do they ever need to cut rates again? Or maybe they should raise rates. No. No. No. Because we've got our models from 2019 and 2018. And pre COVID, the way here's the way the economy worked pre COVID. There
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