The Next Big Trade Is Hiding In Plain Sight | Citrini
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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Before we get started with today's show, I just wanna take a couple minutes to talk about permission list four, the next conference presented by BlockWorks. It's happening in June in Brooklyn, New York, and it's all for the developers and builders in crypto. So So if you're interested in really understanding how the nuts and bolts of the crypto industry are being built and you wanna learn more, go ahead and get your ticket. I'm gonna be there as well as with Quinn and the rest of the Ford guidance gang. It's gonna be a ton of fun. So use the code f g 10 at tech checkout, and you'll get 10% off
I'm doing great. And it's it's always funny when when, you know, either speaking to Jack or or with you, that that that that's the case now. Because I remember the first time when I came on, it was, like, like, right after 2022, everyone was, like, super bearish on tech. And then I came on, and I was like, I think you should buy semiconductors because of AI. And it was like I think it got, like, 9,000 views, like, nothing, and and all the comments were like, this guy's an idiot. So it's always really funny when when you when I hear that that's the case. But, yeah, super excited to get you on t
I want to start the conversation by digging into a recent piece you published where you had this really interesting framework for how to think about Trump and and the macro situation and the trade war, which is really by digging into what are the constraints to different parties as opposed to focusing on their preferences of what they would prefer. And I believe you published this right before we got the announcement of the China trade pause, the ninety day pause. Correct me if I'm wrong. But regardless, overall, that set you up nicely to understand that the off ramp was gonna continue more th
Ever since kind of, Liberation Day, the the view has generally been, this is a generational inflection point, but it's contingent on, like, one dude. And the the salient point of that is, Trump has constraints just like anyone else. No matter how much he wanted to say, you know, the market's gotta take your medicine or whatever. And, obviously, we had to the market had to price in those risks. And, we basically just created a massive wall of worry that that forgot about the fact that, they probably don't want to cause a recession. They definitely don't wanna cause stagflation. Right? Because b
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would say, you have to qualify it with it with just again, if you just listen to Scott Besant speak, this kind of three legged stool, that the answer to that question is gonna be dependent on the progress that they make with tax cuts and, deregulation. You know, the the the the deregulation side has been super opaque. I don't think, I haven't really spoken with anyone, that knows what the administration's specific deregulation, agenda is. But we did get, like, the one big beautiful bill. So that's, like, $5,000,000,000,000 in net tax cuts over ten years. And, the thing you know, we, wrote an a
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