The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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You have no clue what it means when the world is 400% of GDP in debt. Even Elon, who can solve going to Mars, can't solve this. If I'm to allocate to the S and P 500, I'm basically breaking even versus debasement. Diversification destroys returns now because you've got one clear macro factor. It's also the same factor that is driving p ratios that drives everybody nuts. But I think it's becoming pretty obvious that AI and robots are replacement humans. And this is the bit that gets contentious with people, and they hate it.
Nothing said on Ford guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of BlockWorks. Our host, guests, and the BlockWorks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed. Alright, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Ford guidance, and I'm super excited today to have the dynamic duo, the dynastic duo too, Julie Patel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, and Raoul
Yeah. It's great. We've never done this before, where Julie and I have been interviewed together, and you're the perfect person for it. So it should be a lot of fun. Yeah.
Excited. Appreciate it. We're
excited. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. The way you guys just chop it up, I just I really love it. And, honestly, selfishly, I just wanted to insert myself and just be a part of it with you guys because, I love the shooting the shit style. I love the back and forth. So, yeah, it's just it's just perfect. Excellent.
Let's just do it. Let's shoot
the shit. Let's do it. Cool, guys. Well, why don't we start from the top and just level set a little bit on you guys do a lot of work around debt refinancing cycles. You call it the everything code, the business cycle, the liquidity cycle, and how they all cointegrate together and just how fundamental the shift has been, especially since 02/2008. And I think the frameworks that you guys have developed have been very prescient. So I would love to just, you know, pass it to both of you to just kinda set the foundation here for the discussion and just level set on on where things stand today here
Yeah. I'll take the the big picture part is look. From our work, we kind of noticed the business cycle structure. We're both business cycle analysts. We've both been looking at them for a long time. It changed after two thousand and eight, and it became like a metronome every four years. That's only happened once in the past, which was the nineteen fifties and sixties, where it became very, very cyclical. But this is perfectly cyclical. And it it got me thinking for a while. What the hell? So many of us didn't understand what happened to asset prices after 02/2008. We kind of knew quantitative
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