The Recession Has Already Started | George Robertson
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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And I'm saying recession, not a slowdown, not a pause, not a kerfuffle recession. Trump comes in, and although he's talking that he's in a big beautiful budget and it's all gonna be great and biggest tax cut ever. He has actually tightened more in a shorter time than probably any presidency since well, actually, probably in history. The macroeconomic impact of tariffs is a fiscal tightening because of the greatly increased tax bill. You got to come up with about, oh, it looks like 400,000,000,000 corporate profits to make me look ridiculous or even to dismiss me. The door is already shut. And
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Shit, feel like you should have told me that because now I'm gonna take care of this, okay?
There you go. Yeah.
I gotta start charging you.
Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. But no, it's great to have you on. You've had some evolving and bold theses both as, you know, we had you back on here, think in 2024, and you're one of the loudest bulls, and you're correct on that. And now I would say you're one of the loudest bears. So, George, we need to figure out what changed. We need to figure out what's going on and dig into the data. So I'm excited to have you on here.
Okay, great. Well, first, always a big compliment that you'd spend time with me. So I really appreciate the invite and I hope it can be useful. The nature of like how I look at the markets and my timing, as shown by my P and L year to date sucks. I'm just dismal in terms of sentiment and triple tops and reading the technicals and all that good stuff. And the market is definitely being led, I think, by that type of mentality that that's not to diss it. Commodity guys have been doing it for centuries. But it shows with the introduction of crypto and other very hard to find intrinsic value assets
And before you pull up the slides, I just do wanna provide a little bit more context there on where you came from. So you follow the flow of funds. Last year, correct me if I'm wrong, but to characterize what the flow of funds were telling you was that we are in this regime with a very dominant fiscal impulse, binomics, etcetera, etcetera, that was leading to higher end GDP in a regime where, yes, we had, you know, the Fed was still showing up every month or so and changing or hiking or cutting interest rates, but overall the monetary impulse was very subdued. So we're in this regime where the
That's right. And also I have a great cheat or hack, which the Federal Reserve and the monetary system is deliberately or it's obviously complex. And people start and end and often never leave the monetary policy of the Fed in terms of their analysis. Fed's doing this, Fed's doing that. They said this, they said that Powell coughed, all sorts of stuff. And I realized by about 2015 that as far as a flow of funds analysis, which is, will be and has always been the economy with the Federal Reserve only adding a bit of governance to it, there is no Federal Reserve. In other words, the Federal Rese
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