The Secret To Maintaining Dollar Dominance | Joseph Wang & Austin Campbell LIVE @ DAS
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Well, in the great words of Monty Python, and now for something completely different, we're gonna be talking about macro and crypto and how those worlds collide. So I'm excited to be joined today by I'll let them both introduce themselves, but maybe we'll start with you, Joseph. Oh,
hi. My my name is Joe Swain. Some of you might have seen me on Ford guidance before. So I run an registered investment advisory called Monetary Macro, and, also, I write a weekly newsletter at fedguy.com. So my background is in central banking and financial markets. Austin.
Alright. Hello. I'm Austin Campbell. I am a professor at NYU. I unfortunately, know more about stable coins that is probably healthy for any individual human being, having run and built some myself in the past. And I have a long and somewhat tortured career in traditional finance as
well.
Nice. Well, that really sets the theme here for what we're gonna be talking about of tying those two worlds that seemed very different and separate just a couple years ago or even just six months ago and seeing how those two worlds are colliding. So I wanna start by just digging into getting everybody up to speed on how what what's what's the right way to think about macro as it stands today? So, obviously, we had the FOMC meeting yesterday. There was no real surprises there in terms of the rate cut changes, but there was a lot to dig into. So I'm actually gonna pass it to Joseph. I would love
think the FOMC meeting could be summarized by So, basically, chair Powell, if you look at his, projections, March FOMC was one of those special FOMC meetings where we get dot plot projections. You can see that the FOMC is really, really uncertain as to what the world will look like in the future. In the dot plot, basically, members there say that the risks are to the downside for unemployment and, you know, very high uncertainty. And for inflation, risks are to the upside and also very high uncertainty. We have a lot of things happening in the world that make macro super interesting. When it c
so before you got wildly obsessed with stable coins, you did used to be a rates trader. That was your world. So I'm gonna tap on that world for just a little bit here before we get too deep onto the stablecoin side of things. But what's your high level framework for how to think about macro today? Is it just, you know, being fully focused on the fiscal side of things? What's your current perspective on monetary? How are you characterizing that?
Yeah. I think alright. So let's zoom out a little bit from The United States actually, which I think is a useful exercise right now. We're used to thinking in The United States of ourselves as a country that has a relatively clean relatively clean fiscal situation and clear monetary policy. And historically, so if you're thinking nineties, '2 thousands, you would look into emerging markets to find most places that we would think were in significantly worse shape. But one of the things I've been observing from a macro perspective is lately The United States itself has started to trade more like
Yeah. Joseph, taking that mantle of this dynamic of what happened in September where, yeah, we got, you know, we we started off with the 50 bps cut, and we saw the long end, sell off quite significantly. You're calling for four or so cuts for for 2025. And to your point, the Fed's only at two. The market's around there as well. If we were to move forward into these accelerated cuts, what do you think is the impact on the long end there in that respect? Because to what we've already been saying here is
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