The Stock Market Melt Up Is About To Accelerate | George Robertson
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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Okay. Great. Okay. Very, very complimentary words, and I'm I'm really, I'm really pleased to be on the show. I know this, this is a new, a new career for you, if you will, for the last 6 months, and you must must be careful in terms of who you get on it. So, I'm kind I'm very complimented that you would, you would have me on. Awesome.
Yeah. I think, like I said, there's there's some there's some contrarian and and first principles views that are very interesting. So we're gonna spend the next while here really unpacking that. So the first one, and it's the one that, you know, you've you've made some, some headlines about, which is this idea that the Fed doesn't exist. And and, you know, on a headline basis, that sounds quite, confusing because, you know, we just had, like, the FOMC meeting yesterday, and, you know, there was a there was a Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, exists as a person. So the idea that they don't exist, I
gonna I'm gonna backpedal just a little bit. When I say no Fed, I I don't mean that there's not an $8,000,000,000,000 balance sheet out there, and that there's not this incredible powerful institution that's in charge for all the, most of the system banks, that has great suasion, great control, great strategy in terms of its effect on the US economy. What I mean by no fed is that there's no, for the last, I'd say 10 years, there's no discernible monetary policy that has effect in terms of, like, either raising employment or dropping employment, you you know, to produce unemployment. There's no
Yeah. Just to quickly unpack, when you say Neo Wixel, and then you mentioned something that happened in 2014, I just I just wanna clarify what you mean by that. So what your assertion is is that in 2014 when when Ben Bernanke was the Fed chair, there was a there was a policy shift in terms of how they actually, you know, implemented monetary policy. And you're saying that shift is called Neo Wixel. Right? That's
correct. And it's it's, you know, it's it's admitted or or not not confessed. It's stated, you know, clearly by the Fed that that is what they did. And, it's it has some complexity to it. The first appears was when Bernanke was, giving a speech or chiding to Japan in front of the Bank of Japan or the Monetary Society or something of Tokyo in, I think it was 2,006 or so. And then it disappeared and then when the GFC hit, Bernanke and a few others in the, in the feds resurrected it. Now it was thought that this was sort of a since it was such a stunning radical change, they needed a way to imple
Otherwise known as just Ford guidance.
Ford guidance. Exactly. Yeah. And Ford guidance isn't like, well, you know, all things might happen, but this is likely where we end up. Ford guidance is actually an insistence that they will control the outcome. And so they they started to make careers. Young journalists at papers like the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, where where bypass where where they bypass the old steady guys who might actually
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