The System Is Too Levered To Take Real Pain | Arthur Hayes
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Before we get started with today's show, I just wanna take a couple minutes to talk about permission list for the next conference presented by BlockWorks. It's happening in June in Brooklyn, New York, and it's all for the developers and builders in crypto. So if you're interested in really understanding how the nuts and bolts of the crypto industry are being built and you wanna learn more, go ahead and get your ticket. I'm gonna be there as well as with Quinn and the rest of the Ford guidance gang. It's gonna be a ton of fun. So use the code f g 10 at checkout, and you'll get 10% off your tick
my name is Arthur Hayes. I guess my claim to fame is I was the cofounder well, I am the cofounder and former CEO of BitMEX, the trading platform that invented the perpetual swap, which I'm sure anyone who's involved in the cryptocurrency industry has traded a product that is based on a design that we came up with in 02/2016. Subsequently to that, I created my own family office called Maelstrom, and I am a chief investment officer. And we do early stage token deals and any sort of crypto related trading stuff. Cool.
Right on. Yeah. I was saying off camera here that it it feels like we have a lot of similarities here. I love to go backcountry skiing. I love macro, and I love Bitcoin, and I love how it all comes together. And I know that's a lot of the worlds that you you walk around. So we'll we'll set aside the ski touring part, for today's discussions and just really hone in on on the macro situation. It's it's a really exciting time in macro right now. There's a lot of different moving parts. And, obviously, the the the most fast flowing moving of those parts is tariffs and what's going on there. So we'
So I think Trump has been extremely consistent in his overarching goal or message, which is there's a portion of America who believes that they've gotten a raw deal from globalization over the past fifty years since the early seventies when US went off to a gold standard. And Trump is going to be that politician that's gonna speak to this underserved portion of America and bring bring back America great when it is, make America great again, all all those political slogans. And, you know, he's been very consistent in his messaging that, you know, essentially, the current account deficit that Th
That always feels like the point of tension between, yeah, what can we actually get done versus how much can the financial system hold in terms of the strain involved in us. Obviously, yeah, you know, when we got the the thirty year passing 5% yield, that was starting to be more evident of of the maximum amount of of pain and uncertainty that it can hold, and we've seen that yet ratcheting back. So I wanna I wanna double click down into you've had some interesting insights on the reflection on how China's thinking about this all right now, and and how does that get reflected in their currency
US Treasury secretary Besson has been quite clear, at least in his mind, the strategy is, okay. Let's get together all the good people and those aligned with Western values, blah blah blah, and we're gonna present this united front to China, which, I guess, kinda makes sense because, you know, we saw what happened when The US tried to restrict, exports in China to come into The US market. Then China said, okay. Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, you know, we'll figure out a way to get stuff through you onto The US, and, you know, nothing really changed. So if they really wanna have this Chim
Yeah. Totally. And it feels like that's where the game theory is at now, which i
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