The Trump Put Is In The Bond Market | Weekly Roundup
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Alright. What's going on, everybody? Welcome back to another roundup edition of Ford guidance. And after a very fun previous week, a roundup with the MacroDrip boys, it's back to just us too. Quinn, what's going on, man? How are you doing? That was an insane week. Are you alive? Yeah.
Is it Friday yet? Shit. I'm ready for the weekend. Hopefully, like, my goal you know, hopefully, Trump takes takes tomorrow off and hits the hits the links, does, like, a 72 hole three day golf bender, and just shuts up for, like, the weekend at least. I
would I would love to do the same thing. I think you know? Yeah. We were just saying that both of us are just you know? It's been, you know, just full on at the screens for at least twelve hours a day right now. Just trying to stay on top of everything every day. And, yeah, I mean, you can see in the bags under my eyes. It's been a big week. So we're almost feels like we're almost through it. But, yeah, man. It's it's it's been a it's been a big one. K. Couple quick housekeeping points before we get into the thick of of what everybody's looking for. Quick shield permission list four coming up
Yeah. That's gonna be a good time. Summertime in New York, people good vibes are out. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Get some West Side Highway runs.
There you go. In the in the heart of Brooklyn. But yeah. Okay. With that aside, chills aside, I wanna start the episode by just hearing about how both of us navigated this past week. So, obviously, last Friday was when the climax started to hit up the panic. We started to see the margin calls happen. Everything was getting sold off. Pod shots are blowing up. Basis trades are blowing up. You know? Treasury boards are blowing up. And, yeah, it felt like fear finally hit. And we started to talk about, you know, in that last round up episode about, you know, this is the time to close your shorts.
I mean, I think early in the week, there was that big tell with the fake headline at at at and what risk assets did. So that sort of gave a signal that people were looking to reallocate once once Trump or someone says uncle and just didn't know when. And then there's the uncertainty of, like, when do you buy here? Is is uncle 3% or 5% lower? So we kinda had, like, levels set out from earlier in the year that we thought would be a pullback. Honestly, that in January, we said '54 or '55. I can't remember. And then we did set then we kinda changed it in in March to 51. Didn't think we'd get as lo
Totally. I so I wrote out a tweet on Sunday where I sort of threw around the ideas of how I thought, you know, the the mechanical pure market structure aspects would play out and, you know, the way just from experience of of, you know, I haven't I'm I'm I'm still young, I admit. And, you know, but, you know, I've been through 2020, been through December 2018, which was a similar situation in some ways. Traded a lot of of the first administration for Trump. And the way I just felt like it would go would be just, you know, based on the close on Friday where we just closed the lows, and it was, l
This specific case, a good analogy I like is when, Soros Druck would have a good idea and Soros would three x it or whatever and and and say do more. I think which, I guess, people still don't believe, that Besson is the mastermind behind all of this. Like, if you think Trump's rebalancing like, he's not, like it's it's Besson, and Trump is taking his plan and putting his spin on it. You know? It's like when you do artist does a remix of a song, it's like, here's what needs to happen. And Trump says, well, this is how I'm
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