The U.S. Job Market Is On The Brink | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Bullish:

• $MKTPCE - Market-based core PCE is seen as an important real-time indicator of market pricing, potentially influencing Fed policy decisions.

  • “Market based core PCE is nothing more than what it sounds to be. You're trying to gauge real time market pricing.”

    Danielle·31:23

Bearish:

• $LABOR - The US labor market is facing challenges, with increasing difficulty for job seekers to find new employment, indicating a potential downturn.

  • “If you lose your job in United States, it's very difficult to get a new one.”

    Danielle·11:50
• $GOVEMP - Government employment is expected to decline as COVID-era stimulus spending has been largely exhausted, potentially leading to hiring freezes and job losses in the public sector.

  • “COVID era stimulus spending from the federal government into US states has largely been exhausted.”

    Danielle·13:45
• $MFG - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of contraction, with backlogs decreasing below recessionary levels, suggesting a bearish outlook.

  • “We actually saw backlogs decrease further into contraction at 44.9, which is below the recessionary 45 level.”

    Danielle·33:59
• $BIZINV - Business investment has contracted for the first time since 2020, indicating a potential recession and suggesting a bearish outlook on capital expenditure.

  • “And what we saw was that we saw business investment contract for the first time really since 2020.”

    Danielle·36:38