The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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What's up, everybody? Right before we get into the show here, just wanna give a quick shout out for our next BlockWorks conference coming up in just over a month. Permissionless four is happening June, and it's a crypto conference all for the developers and builders in the space. We're gonna be hosting it right in the heart of Brooklyn, New York, and it's gonna be a ton of fun. There's gonna be a lot of fantastic speakers, and the whole forward guidance crew is gonna be there. Myself, Tyler, Quinn, we're gonna be doing a live round up. There's gonna be some wicked community events. Come meet u
man. Glad to be back. Thanks for having me. Yeah.
Yeah. Always a pleasure. I, always love to have you on and just, you know, deep dive into the the granularity of of all things growth, inflation, labor markets. You always have some fantastic forecasts, and those forecasts have kept you on the the pretty right side of of of the trades this year as I as I understand it. You've had a pretty good year so far. Yeah.
It didn't it didn't start off that way. I was pretty bold up on growth, towards the end of last year. It was just kind of the economy, and everything was just firing off cylinders. And I was pretty pretty ginned up on on on on growth. And then, you know, again, with with some caveats of, you know, the ebbs and flows. And then, you know, the when once the new administration came into power, there's a lot of talk about, you know, cutting the deficit, rolling back government expenditures, and that started to kind of weigh on markets in terms of, you know, less fiscal impulse. You know, I was anch
I feel like what you represent there is, 2025 has been the year that if you're macro trading, you gotta be nimble, and you gotta rethink your priors pretty aggressively. And so I wanna just take a step back and just look at the 30,000 foot view here of how were you thinking about the framework for basically the first few months of the Trump administration where, to your point, it was these narratives, and we'll call them narratives because that's all they they really have been so far of austerity, doge cutting, you know, trying to get, you know, the three three three thing, getting deficits do
called I mean, just colloquially, the the BMP. The the big macro picture for me is we are running these gigantic, enormous deficits. And, you know, when DOGE was a meme back in late February, early March, the numbers that they were talking and throwing around were just trivial. They were rounding errors to the budget. So I didn't take the the the budget, reduction, narrative very seriously. And the reality is a, you know, a public sector deficit is a private sector surplus. So that is just a wall of money hitting the private economy. So it kind of, in a way, inoculates the economy from normal
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I wouldn't be so extreme and say impossible, but it raises the bar. And and I and I think, you know, without going full MMT, which I I don't, subscribe to that that worldview, there there
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