The US is Risking Stagflation | Mohamed El-Erian

The US is Risking Stagflation | Mohamed El-Erian – Forward Guidance

Bullish:

$INFLATION - Inflation reduction progress has stalled, with concerns about potential increases in the future.
$JPY - Japan's economy is emerging from a long period of low growth, signaling a potential shift in its economic trajectory.
$EQUITIES - European equities have significantly outperformed U.S. equities, contrary to previous expectations.
$BTC - Bitcoin is establishing its identity as a hybrid between liquid gold and a payment system asset, with growing institutional adoption.
$EUR - The euro has experienced its strongest week in almost twenty years, approaching the 1.09 level.
$BUND - German bonds experienced a significant 30 basis point move in one day, a rare occurrence not seen since German reunification.

Bearish:

$ECON - The probability of a U.S. recession has increased from 10% to 25-30%, though it's not the baseline scenario.
$CL - Oil prices have seen a massive decline, with both WTI and Brent trading below $70 a barrel, reaching levels not seen since 2021.