The US is Risking Stagflation | Mohamed El-Erian
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Crypto's premier institutional conference is returning to New York on March. We're hosting one of the world's best crypto conferences for institutional and professionals alike. It's gonna be a ton of fun. I'm gonna be there hosting a variety of different panels. I'll be doing a fireside chat with Mohammed El Erian, a different macro panel with Jim Bianco and Joseph Wang, and we're also gonna be doing a live Ford guidance round up there where myself, Tyler, and Quinn will be dropping it up live for the guys' Emporium. So make sure to get your tickets. It's gonna sell out quick. I know it. It's
well. Thanks for having me.
Yeah. Very excited. It's it's been a it's been one of those weeks where it feels like decades happen as they say, and there's been a lot going on. I wanna start off the conversation by just digging into the draw support that we had this morning. There's a few interesting data points that come in there. It feels like a mixed bag of results. I I saw your tweet this morning where you mentioned how, the nonfarm payroll print did come in at 151,000, which was below the consensus forecast of a 60. We saw the unemployment rate tick up. Most interestingly to me was that the u six unemployment rate sky
as you said, it's been quite a week, and this one was not a big a huge surprise. There were little things as you pointed out that were notable, but we didn't miss in a big way as we've had in the past on job creation. So job creation came in at a 51,000. Consensus forecast was one sixty. That's within the margin of errors. Unemployment rate four to 4.1, not a big deal. Average hourly earnings came in as expected point three. For me, the big surprise is that people dropped out of the labor force. And this speaks to a bigger issue as to if you go forward, are we gonna see the weakness on the lab
Yeah. So my understanding is that the the survey for the non fraudster role came in during February. So it missed a large chunk of what we've been seeing occur with with federal government employees being laid off due to Doge. And to your point, it's it's a difficult market to lose your job in. The hiring rate is is pretty lackluster. So is is the the main risk in that scenario just these people dropping out and having trouble to find a new job effectively? Correct.
So so so the the big the big risk is income and security. Whether you have a job or whether you lose your job, that you will feel that your future income is at risk. And you can see it. Certain people who were looking for jobs stopped looking for job because it's getting so difficult to find new jobs. If If you if you lose your job, you can't find a job easily. And if you have a job, you become more insecure. So this notion of income insecurity is starting to, become more important. And we didn't we haven't had to worry about this for a very long time. We've had a very strong labor market, and
I wanna dig into that a bit deeper. We also we we got the the Challenger, data yesterday, and that was pretty interesting because I think a lot of the narrative right now is that most of the the job losses is in the government sector. But what we actually saw in that is that it's actually spreading towards the private sector as well. Do you see that as being mostly attributed to the the private sector uncertainty due to the the government policy uncertainty that's occurring right now? I
think it's due to uncertainty, part of which is coming from the trade side, part of which is coming from the public sector reform side, the Doge side. So so that the level the measures of uncertainty are at level
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