Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan
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to be here. Yeah. Great day to talk about these things. Thanks for having me.
Yeah. Yeah. No doubt about that. Alright. So let's get right into it here. We are coming off the back of the election. It's looking like a red sweep. Trump has been nominated has won the election. I wanna start off by honing in on the societal and cultural impacts first, and then we can dive into the market side of things. Because as as many listeners of you know, you've talked a lot about this populism era that we're living in, and it feels like, you know, we're really just heading towards that in a in a pretty significant way with a with a full on red sweep, led by the charge of Trump. So fi
Yeah. So if you look at the elections from the last populist period. Right? If you start in in, really, 1960, right, and you take it all the way to 1980, you look at that 20 year period, we had Kennedy who was assassinated, in the, you know, 33 years into his term. LBJ takes over on the sympathy of of Kennedy's assassination gets reelected, but that doesn't have a second term. Then Nixon gets elected, right, does actually get a second term, but then guess what? You're in. Scandal gets kicked out of office. Ford takes over, doesn't get reelected. Carter gets elected, doesn't get reelected. And
Yeah. It's interesting. You know, you you said in there that this wasn't a surprise to you, but, you know, when I when I look at, you know, more traditional media components like pollsters and just the the broad based, you know, traditional media landscape, there was a lot of assumptions that this was gonna be a really tight race, and that it it wasn't a given for Trump. So it feels like you know, when I listen to your framework, it makes perfect sense what just occurred. But when I listen to those traditional media components, they were they were totally offside here. Whereas it looks like th
I think the the problem with data models in general, whether it's pollsters or trading models or anything, is they're looking at 40 years of data. 40 years is forever. Right? Who looks at data past 40 years? If you do, when you try and make, claims like I am over 40 years, people like, are like, okay. Yeah. Sure. Well, it's different from the last 4 years. Alright, guy. Like, it is. It's different. There are big long term cycles. It doesn't mean it's different than the long term history. The long term history tells you a different story. People are so focused on what's happened 5 years, 10 yea
I wanna talk a bit about how markets are digesting this red sweep that we just had occur. So just to level set here, you know, I'm looking at the US dollar index. It's up 1.6% today. Yields are absolutely soaring on the long end. How are you seeing markets digest, you know, this news, and what do you think is the key driver? Is it just the the somewhat of a surprise of a red sweep and just, you know, historically, markets have not really liked, they preferred gridlock, generally speaking. So what do you think is the m
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