US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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Before we get started with today's show, I just wanna take a couple minutes to talk about permission list four, the next conference presented by BlockWorks. It's happening in June in Brooklyn, New York, and it's all for the developers and builders in crypto. So if you're interested in really understanding how the nuts and bolts of the crypto industry are being built and you wanna learn more, go ahead and get your ticket. I'm gonna be there as well as with Quinn and the rest of the Ford guidance gang. It's gonna be a ton of fun. So use the code f g 10 at checkout, and you'll get 10% off your ti
to be here. Thanks. It's
actually good we're recording earlier. So, you know, tomorrow's last trading day before Good Friday, and, you know, I think today there's some data tomorrow, but the bulk is with Powell's speech and retail sales probably through. So it's a good time.
Yeah. I'm gonna arm some people some knowledge. K. Let's get into it. Markets fell apart again. They started to fall apart yesterday in after hours when we got the headline drop of, The US basically banning NVIDIA GPUs from going to China, and that got the momentum reversing pretty substantially. And then it just kept on going throughout the whole day, and we got the pallet presser. He he came out and had some remarks. I unfortunately miss it. I was busy recording a podcast, but Quinn would love to hear. It sounds like you were on top of it. Would love to hear what were your high level takes o
So we've obviously had quite a slate of fed speak over the last, say, four to five trading days. A lot of them have been nonvoting members, but, still useful data points nonetheless. And I'd say the recurring theme has been a really large cautiousness and hesitation around any cuts and, you know, pretty pessimistic about the impacts of of tariffs and how that affects their job in setting policy and and supporting the economy if if the two goals of of stable employment and, low inflation go against each other. So earlier this week, we had Waller speak who obviously is is you know, people listen
wanna cap especially, I wanna hear how you take that with you're always so good at seeing how the tension of that is reflected in market pricing. So, yeah, like, how are you taking this dynamic of where monetary policy is at and especially as reflected in in the market as you see it right now? I
would I would say a lot of my macro view over the last week has pretty dramatically changed in terms of how I'm thinking about running trades and then also thinking about these tariff, things and then also the, you know, the tariff news and then also from the the releases from Powell. I think, you know, coming in maybe about, I guess, about a month ago now, I thought the forward curve was probably, pretty cheap. I think the especially the twenty twenty six SOFR contracts, All of those just had a ton of upside in my view. And then we basically had that, blew out to the upside, priced, almost em
Yeah. There's some there's some interesting points in there. It sounds mostly as if, yeah, you believe there's better value in some of the more microstructures of the rotations of of the impact of of these changing tariff flows and, like, capital flows as opposed to trying to take a directional punt on equity indices based off, like, the most recent tariff headlines. Is that correct?
Well yeah. Because I I think the the difficulty is that all of these headlines that are coming out, and I've I've just been digging into all of them. The difficulty is that they have such massive structural implications. So, like, if you have a
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