What is Macro Telling Us? | Weekly Roundup
Episode publishedPodcast: Forward GuidanceForward Guidance
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What's up, everybody? Before we get started on the show, I just wanna give a quick shout out to our new forward guidance newsletter. It runs 5 days a week. It talks about all things macro, digital assets, and how the two worlds are starting to collide together. I'm a writer for it at least once a week, as well as a very talented editorial team. And so check the link in our description to go sign up today. It's free, and you won't regret it. Alright. Back to the show. What's up, guys? Great to see you all here. Before we get into it, I wanna ask, has anybody here watched the forward guidance ep
on the margin. Or on the margin. 1 or the other. It's
actually forward marginal guidance. That's the official name of this.
Forward marginal guidance. Guy's Emporium edition. Unfortunately we don't have our other compatriot Tyler here today. He couldn't make it but we got the 3 of us here and we're super excited to do this. Quinn for those that don't know you maybe you can just introduce yourself real quick. We won't let Mike do that because everybody here should already know who Mike is. But maybe if we don't he can also add in there.
That made me sound way cooler than I actually am. So, thanks, Felix. Yeah.
I'm Quinn Thompson, founder and CIO of Lacker Capital. It's a macro hedge fund that focuses on both traditional macro and crypto, launched in May, fully discretionary, no no long or, short mandate. So kinda go anywhere in both crypto and macro.
Awesome. Well, look, for those that are watching this or listening for the first time, what we do here is we normally round up the markets, what happened in the week, get our takes on what we're seeing out there, mostly focused on macro but also through a crypto lens and how they both intersect. So with that in mind, we're just going to get right into this. I want to start this episode of forward guidance, forward marginal guidance by just looking at some of the economic data that we got in today. We had the CPI print which came in hot versus expectations. I'll just go through a couple numbers
I think we're in this period where everyone, you know, a lot of the market impacts of rate cuts were front run particularly in the yield curve and, the currency markets with the dollar getting beaten down and and actually bottoming on the day of the FOMC, 50 basis point surprise. And that's kind of spooked a lot of people, but the bright side of that was most of that yield strength and dollar strength is on the back of a stronger US economic data with the labor, report from last week. So, I think we're in this digestion period where the market's trying to, both price out some of the rate cuts
I have thoughts here but before I do I want to actually poll the audience here and I want to get a show of hands. How many folks in the audience think that we have conquered inflation and that has been completely beaten? Alright. That's interesting. So that's going to build on the point that I'm going to make, which is inflation, there are mechanical reasons for inflation, but the tricky part of inflation is that it tends to be very psychological and it's very difficult to actually make quantitative analysis around it. I think the stock market is trading a little bit weird right now, crypto's
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