Where Are We In The Bull Market? | Jurrien Timmer
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well. Thanks for having me. Yeah.
Super excited to have you. You know, I like I was saying off camera here. I'm just a big fan of your macro charts. There's always something really unique that I see, you know, is very out of consensus to you and always something that I'll learn from it. So it's gonna be great to dig through some of those charts and get your thinking. Awesome. Awesome. Well, I I wanna set the stage here by just looking at this first chart here, which is just looking at the context of where we are today and also the context of where we've been in this bull market in equities so far. So with this in mind, I would
Yeah. So we just passed the 2 year anniversary of this cyclical bull market, started October 13, 2022. And in my view, we're in about the 7th inning of a secular bull market, which in my view is started in March of 2009, although other technicians will disagree and say it started in 2013, but, but that that's okay. So I call this the 7 and 7 market, 7th inning of a cyclical bull market, 7th inning of a secular bull market. In terms of the cyclical, the median cycle, going back a 100 plus years has been good for 90% gains over 30 months. So far, we have about 70% over 24, 25 months. And so that
Yeah. Has it surprised you to see because to your point about the uniqueness, effectively, we've seen this bull market occur through one of the fastest rate hiking cycles that we've seen. Is is that like, how unique is that? Is that normal? Has that happened before, or is this pretty unique here? It's
happened before. You have to go back to the sixties early seventies. So, like and, actually, 73 was a a major peak, and and the seventies are, in many ways, nothing like, you know, what we see today. But the 74 bear market, which was a 48% bear market, happened even though the economy was expanding, but the Fed was slamming on the brakes. And then as soon as the Fed stopped raising rates, the market bottomed and rallied even though we got a recession. And so in some ways, there is a parallel because, you know, 2022, we had a 28% bear market. It was entirely based on valuation declines that wer
might seem like a little bit of a simplistic question, but what say you to the argument that perhaps, you know, these these rate hikes have not actually been effective, and that's why we're seeing us we're at you know, when you compare short rates, which has been the main component that's hiked, but a lot of, you know most big corporations bar on the long end and have termed out their debt. You know, we got 30 year fixed mortgages, which are are are much highly more weighted in terms of how much are participated in versus, you know, variable rate mortgages. So, you know, perhaps the reason tha
Yeah. I I think there there's some some truth to that. First of all, the economy seems to be a lot less interest rate sensitive than it has in the past. You mentioned terming out the debt. It's not just corporations, but most homeowners in 2020 and 21, said goodbye
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