$GDX - Gold miners are positioned to benefit from geopolitical disorder and gold's performance as a safe haven asset. Capital owns 2026 GDX calls, showing strong personal conviction in this trade.
$GLD - Gold is the easiest long-term play to express geopolitical disorder, proving itself as a safe haven asset during recent tensions.
$TECH - Technology and AI investment will receive continued government support as a national security imperative, regardless of political leadership, though short-term positioning risks exist.
Bearish:
$BTC - Bitcoin has failed to prove itself as a safe haven asset during geopolitical tensions, underperforming while gold rallied. The burden of proof remains on Bitcoin to demonstrate reserve asset status.
$FLOATDEBT - Companies with floating rate debt are vulnerable as real rates have risen due to Fed hawkishness relative to falling inflation expectations.
$ALLY - Auto finance companies like Ally Financial have significant exposure to deteriorating auto loans and rising delinquencies, making them vulnerable in the current credit environment.
$RARE - Rare earth sectors currently have massive premiums driven by cross-border flows, making them overvalued despite potential long-term strength.