Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows

Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows – Forward Guidance

Market views

Bullish

GDX— Gold miners are positioned to benefit from geopolitical disorder and gold's performance as a safe haven asset. Capital owns 2026 GDX calls, showing strong personal conviction in this trade.
GLD— Gold is the easiest long-term play to express geopolitical disorder, proving itself as a safe haven asset during recent tensions.
TECH— Technology and AI investment will receive continued government support as a national security imperative, regardless of political leadership, though short-term positioning risks exist.

Bearish

BTC— Bitcoin has failed to prove itself as a safe haven asset during geopolitical tensions, underperforming while gold rallied. The burden of proof remains on Bitcoin to demonstrate reserve asset status.
FLOATDEBT— Companies with floating rate debt are vulnerable as real rates have risen due to Fed hawkishness relative to falling inflation expectations.
ALLY— Auto finance companies like Ally Financial have significant exposure to deteriorating auto loans and rising delinquencies, making them vulnerable in the current credit environment.
RARE— Rare earth sectors currently have massive premiums driven by cross-border flows, making them overvalued despite potential long-term strength.

Not investment advice.