Why the Oil Shock Could Trigger a Global Recession | Weekly Roundup

Why the Oil Shock Could Trigger a Global Recession | Weekly Roundup – Forward Guidance

Mentioned

Bullish

GLD— Gold positioned well as bonds fail as safe haven assets, with Fed doing QE and potential for significant upside despite dollar strength concerns.
ENERGY— Energy equities and natural gas positioned to benefit from supply shock and geopolitical tensions affecting Strait of Hormuz.
AGRI— Agricultural commodities set up for major bull market due to farmer bankruptcies, supply constraints, and potential fertilizer shortages from energy crisis.
USD— Dollar expected to rally severely as US energy independence contrasts with European and Asian vulnerability to energy crisis.

Bearish

TLT— Bonds viewed as terrible investments due to deficit spending, inflation pressures, and transformation into risk assets rather than safe havens.
EUR— Euro expected to weaken significantly as Europe faces energy crisis and recession risk while still pricing in rate hikes.
IWM— Small caps getting crushed as Main Street bears brunt of energy inflation and economic headwinds.

Not investment advice.