Why This Isn’t A Bubble & Early 2026 Looks Like Goldilocks | Warren Pies
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We said it in 2024. The market should hit 7,000 at some point in early twenty twenty six. And the the big important statement there is, and it still won't be overvalued. It will still be fairly valued. And I would say the same thing here today is that I think the market goes to 8,000 by some point in early twenty twenty six. We're not gonna go into recession, but I don't think we're gonna have some big inflationary boom either. So it's Goldilocks, and that's gonna be the defining feature for this market for, I think, the 2026. I have a hard time coming up with what is the bare argument for 202
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Yeah, man. It's great to be back. Just wrapping up the year and kind of taking assessment of all the damage. You know? So Yeah.
Yeah. It's there's been some damage. It's it's been a big year for you know, it feels like a lifetime ago that back in April, we saw equities sink 20%. Like, it it feels like that was years ago, but it's, you know, it's just half a year ago. It's it's nothing. There's a lot's happened. And I I wanted to reach out because you you always put out some great kind of reviews of the past year and then also looking forward to 2026. So I figured we could start the conversation by just kinda going through some of your your your wins and misses for for 2025. I know you've been reflecting on them a littl
I'm gonna say the thing everybody says, whether they had a good year or a bad year in this business, and it's I'm just gonna get it out of the way, but it's like, yeah, these forecasts are you know, you can't put too much weight into them. I think you wanna, like, check back at the end the year and see where your framework is versus, did we hit the target? Right? And so I'm gonna some of our targets hit very kind of uncannily well, but I'm not, I'm not going to take a whole lot of credit for that or try and act like a guru. What I'm more proud of is that the general macro framework that we lai
Lot of different points I wanna jump into on all of that. But I think one of the the most prescient ones that I I see consistently in the way you analyze markets and macro is this idea of monetary policy, changes in the short rate and how that impacts the long bond and then how that therefore impacts the economy and markets. And so to your point, last year, you know, we had that moment where they first started to do their first couple cuts, and they did a couple of they, you know, they started with 50, the long and sold off pretty significantly. And then it felt like that framing led to the co
I think it's a matter of these, the fiscal impulse blowing back out next year on a structural level, which keeps, like, kind of ambient inflation higher than it would otherwise be. And that's we're in a high inflation secular environment. I don't think that's a controversial statement at this point in time. I think more more importantly is that some people get into that secular mindset, and they can't see the cyclical near term. And the cyclical near term was pretty su
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