Commodities Outlook: What’s Driving Oil, Gold, and Base Metals

Bullish:

• $GOLD - Expect gold prices to rise to $4,000 per troy ounce, representing a 20% upside over the next year, driven by increased central bank buying and potential private investor interest.

  • “We still expect the gold price to rise to $4,000 per troy ounce. So that's another 20% of upside for a year.”

    Dan·11:09

  • “Central bank buying of gold has increased fivefold since '22 when Russia's central bank reserves got frozen.”

    Dan·11:09
• $COPPER - Significant upside expected for US copper prices, potentially driven by tariffs and increased demand from the defense industry.

  • “We see the most upside for gold and for US copper and see the most downside for oil.”

    Dan·18:14

  • “The data are a little hard to get, but a report from, the defense department showed that about 5% of US, copper demand is driven by the defense industry, so sizable share, and 13% of of nickel demand.”

    Dan·17:34
• $POWERGRID - Expect tight summer power markets in the US, particularly in the Mid Atlantic BGM market, with risks of power price spikes and potential outages.

  • “We do think that US, summer power markets are getting very tight. And following the blackout we see on in late April in Spain, we do think that some of the the tighter US power markets, for instance, the Mid Atlantic BGM market is at the significant risk of power price spikes and perhaps even outages.”

    Dan·7:09
• $NICKEL - Potential benefits for nickel from increased defense spending, with 13% of US nickel demand driven by the defense industry.

  • “The data are a little hard to get, but a report from, the defense department showed that about 5% of US, copper demand is driven by the defense industry, so sizable share, and 13% of of nickel demand.”

    Dan·17:34

Bearish:

• $OIL - Expect oil prices to drop by $10 per barrel over the next year due to global supply growing four times more quickly than demand.

  • “We expect global supply this year to grow four times more quickly than demand, assuming no disruptions”

    Dan·4:38
• $USDOLLAR - Bearish outlook on the US dollar implied by central banks diversifying away from dollar-based assets into gold.

  • “Central bank buying of gold has increased fivefold since '22 when Russia's central bank reserves got frozen.”

    Dan·11:09