Currency Wars

Bullish:

• $CNY - China is no longer manipulating its currency to keep it artificially low, and may be managing it to maintain strength despite economic weakness. This suggests potential for CNY appreciation, especially in the context of US-China trade tensions.

  • “My definition of manipulation is sustained purchases of foreign exchange to hold your currency down and maintain a large trade surplus. And China no longer leads to that definition of manipulation.”

    Brad·12:53

  • “The irony for The United States is that right now in a context where The U.S. Is introducing significant tariffs on China's trade and in a context where China's economy is relatively weak, The U.S. Actually needs China to continue to manage its currency.”

    Brad·15:41

Bearish:

• $CNY - China might allow significant yuan depreciation in response to escalating US tariffs, potentially weakening the CNY by 10%.

  • “China could simply make a choice that in the face of ever rising US tariffs, it simply wants a yuan that's weaker by 10%.”

    Brad·17:30