Making Sense of Weak Job Growth Alongside Solid GDP Growth – Goldman Sachs Exchanges — Transcript

Making Sense of Weak Job Growth Alongside Solid GDP Growth – Goldman Sachs Exchanges — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

PRODUCT— Productivity growth has rebounded to historical average of 2% from last cycle's 1.5%, with potential for further AI-driven upside beyond current levels
FISCAL— Fiscal stimulus expected to materialize in 2026, providing a boost to growth as tariff drag abates

Bearish

SEMIS— Semiconductor demand surge in H1 2024 was artificial frontloading ahead of potential 25% tariffs rather than sustainable AI-driven growth
IMPORTS— Tariffs have already raised price levels by 0.4% with another 0.6% increase expected, making imported goods less competitive
EMPLOY— Labor demand growth slowing faster than supply growth, with unemployment rate rising a tenth of a percentage point in each of the last two months

Not investment advice.