Reopening the Economy

From Goldman Sachs Research, this is Alison Nathan. Welcome to Top of Mind, a podcast that explores macroeconomic issues on the minds of our clients. In this episode, we focus on the topic that's on almost everyone's minds right now, how and when to reopen The US economy following aggressive lockdowns to slow the spread of COVID nineteen, which have taken a huge toll on economic growth and employment. We'll look at what a safe reopening might look like, how well positioned The US is to achieving one, and how quickly reopening would really translate into economic recovery, all things which are

When we think about the guidelines that the administration rolled out for reopening, where did they get it right and where do they fall short? So

I think they got right three important things that we're going to have a phased reopening. They had three phases that may or may not be the right number of phases, but that its phase is really important, recognize that different kinds of non essential businesses are probably going to open at different stages. You're going to start with some and you're going to have others at the end and also emphasizes special protections for vulnerable populations, particularly people living in elderly facilities. So I think those are right and appropriate. There are lots of things wrong with the plan. The tr

When it comes to a phase reopening, what might make the most sense so that we avoid another flare up of the virus? Here's more from doctor Emmanuel.

How would you think about the sequence of reopening that makes the most sense? You've

got a certain group of nonessential businesses, whether they're restaurants with masks and temperature testing at the start, their businesses where you can actually do physical distancing inside the offices. I think those are probably going to be your first set of businesses. And I think schools, camps over the summer are very good places to try. We know that infection rates in kids is low and it's very hard to see any deaths below 19 even below 30 is not unheard of, but pretty rare. I would do it on a voluntary basis so that people understand the risks they're taking. They don't wanna take th

I then turn to doctor Mark McClellan, director of the Duke Margolis Center for Health Policy at Duke University, who was FDA commissioner in the George w Bush administration. Doctor McClellan agrees with doctor Emmanuel that any reopening must be done in phases.

How should we think about an appropriate phasing?

I think the notion of dialing up the dimmer gradually with, pause for a few weeks at each step is important to make sure that we're not getting into conditions of less controlled spread. And those initial steps would include more retail businesses under conditions that look a lot like essential businesses today with masks, frequent cleaning, hand washing and hand sanitizing, distancing and stores and establishments way below their full capacity to support distancing, going more slowly with activities and businesses that involve more people closer together, so bars and larger social events. And