The Growth of the Space Industry – Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Market views

Bullish

SPACE— The space economy is projected to grow from $625B to $1 trillion by mid-2030s to 2040s, driven by 95% reduction in launch costs (from $55k to $3k per kg) with visibility to $100 per kg. The sector has shifted from 80% government to 80% commercial spending, creating a flywheel effect of investment and innovation.
STARLINK— Starlink is providing real-time broadband-speed WiFi during flights, demonstrating commercial viability of LEO satellite telecommunications with lower latency than traditional geostationary satellites.
AIMODELS— AI and autonomous systems are fundamental to space operations, enabling autonomous edge computing where satellites analyze data in real-time rather than just transmitting to Earth, creating faster decision-making capabilities.
DEFENSE— Space is now a critical warfighting domain with massive government investment. China is spending $20B annually on space, and the US is investing heavily in initiatives like Golden Dome. Countries are actively arming themselves in space, making assured access as fundamental as having a standing army.

Bearish

LAUNCH— Launch companies face significant execution risk with many rockets exploding on the pad. Investors heavily discount launch companies despite economic opportunity because launch is extremely difficult, making it a high-risk investment.

Not investment advice.