Trump’s tariffs: Big talk or big action?

President Trump has announced several tariffs in just the short time since his inauguration, and there are signs that bigger and broader tariffs could still be ahead. So is this mostly talk, or does Trump really intend to usher in a new era for international trade?

I think everyone needs to really buckle up here because things are just getting started, and it's likely to be even more unpredictable than the first term.

I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges. Each month, I speak with investors, policymakers, and academics about the most pressing market moving issues for our top of mind report from Goldman Sachs Research. In late February, I spoke to Jeff Gerrish to get an insider's perspective at what's driving Trump's tariff policy and what could be ahead. Jeff served as deputy US trade representative for Asia, Europe, The Middle East, and industrial competitiveness during Trump's first term. He's currently a partner at Shager and Associates, a law firm that focuses on international trade la

The president really has several goals with respect to his trade and tariff policies. The first of those is to use tariffs to address unfair trade practices and correct significant trade imbalances with other countries. You hear the president talking a lot about how other countries treat us unfairly and about the big trade deficits that we have on a bilateral basis with other countries as well as with the world as a whole. So he wants to use his trade and tariff policy to address those problems that he sees. The second goal that he has is to rebuild US manufacturing and grow jobs, particularly

for letting that add. What do you think is most misunderstood about this approach to trade policy?

I think the first thing that's misunderstood is the fact that there is a plan and that there is a strategy. And the strategy really is to achieve the goals that we just talked about. Even though it appears to the people outside the administration that this looks erratic or haphazard, the president is showing that he's not going to go softly here. He's gonna go at this in a really hard way and go as close to the deadline as possible to get action. And then if the action isn't taken that he wants, he will move forward with those tariffs. And even if he pulls it back, it's because there have been

One of the biggest surprises, I think, to the market was the announcements around our major allies and trading partners, like Canada, Mexico. Like, given everything that you know and the goals that you had laid out, does it feel to you like this is more on the camp of negotiating tactics or tariffs that he really wants to see put in place? I

think it's more in the realm of negotiating tactics. I really do. He's again, he's looking to take big action on the border and on the fentanyl crisis. And I think he's just looking to get as much as he can done on that and declare victory. And I do think the Canadians and Mexicans are really doing their best to try to meet those goals in terms of giving him enough that he can declare victory on that. And that would be a big win for the president early on in his administration. But it's been unclear, I think, to many people as to what exactly Canada and Mexico need to do to satisfy the preside

25% tariff on autos has been an area of focus. Do you think that goes in the camp of negotiating tactic or more likely to be implemented?