Why China’s economy is struggling

Bullish:

• $CHINAEXP - Chinese exports are showing strong growth, with the latest data indicating a 15% year-on-year increase in export volume from an already high level.

  • “The latest data showing export volume up 15%, 1 5 year on year from a already pretty high level.”

    Hui·3:04
• $EM - Emerging markets may benefit from multinational companies diversifying their manufacturing bases outside of China to avoid potential US tariffs, creating opportunities for strategic positioning in other countries.

  • “Then you can see some countries benefiting more versus other countries as multinational companies moving to other countries outside of China or Chinese manufacturing so want to strategically position themselves in other countries to avoid the US tariffs.”

    Hui·14:05

Bearish:

• $CHINARE - Chinese real estate market is performing worse than expected, with property sales starts projected to decline by 20% year-on-year, indicating a significant downturn in the sector.

  • “If anything, the property numbers are even worse than we were expecting. We thought this year, property sales starts will be down 10% compared to last year, but it's on track for 20% decline year on year.”

    Hui·3:04
• $CHINACON - Chinese consumer spending is showing signs of weakness, with retail sales in August only increasing by 2% year-over-year, suggesting a slowdown in consumer activity.

  • “Retail sales in the month of August only increased to 2% from a year ago levels.”

    Hui·3:04
• $CNY - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) may depreciate significantly against the US Dollar, potentially reaching above 8 USDCNY, due to economic growth impacts and potential US tariffs.

  • “We estimated that the growth impact might be 2 percentage points, and then the RMB may depreciate to above 8 in terms of USDC and why.”

    Hui·13:01