Will Fed policy trigger a US recession? – Goldman Sachs Exchanges — Transcript

Will Fed policy trigger a US recession? – Goldman Sachs Exchanges — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

FEDCUTS— Expectations for Fed rate cuts due to potential policy errors and economic risks, with caution against overreacting to single data points.
UST— Potential for a mild recession with strong household and business balance sheets, coupled with the Fed's ability to cut rates, suggesting a favorable environment for US Treasuries.

Bearish

USECON— Increased concerns about recession risk due to potential Fed policy errors and a 50-60% probability of recession in the next 12 months.
LABOR— Slowing labor market trends with rising unemployment, despite still solid payroll gains.

Not investment advice.