Will tariffs lead to a recession?

Bullish:

• $DOMESTIC - Increasing focus on domestic production is likely to be beneficial regardless of how trade policies evolve, given the current uncertainties in global trade.

  • “None of the outcomes on the table are ones where you would wish you'd focused more on offshoring or hadn't been focused on figuring out how you could do more domestically.”

    Oren·22:56

Bearish:

• $US_GROWTH - Goldman Sachs forecasts very weak US economic growth with a high probability of recession, suggesting a bearish outlook for overall US economic growth.

  • “We have a baseline forecast of zero point five percent fourth quarter to fourth quarter. We have a recession probability of 45%, so very close to fifty fifty.”

    Jan·7:55
• $INVEST - The unpredictability of tariff rates is likely to have a depressing effect on business investment, potentially leading to a recession.

  • “Stable tariff rate would not cause a recession, but a unpredictable tariff rate that can change next day is really a depressing effect on demand.”

    Paul·3:51
• $EQUITIES - The unprecedented scale of tariff increases by the Trump administration is expected to have a significant negative impact on US equities.

  • “This is quite literally people have asked me when I say this whether it's a figure of speech, but this is an order of magnitude bigger shock than anything that has ever happened in US history.”

    Paul·1:47
• $CONS_DISC - A significant decline in consumer confidence, despite the economy not suffering greatly yet, suggests potential negative impacts on consumer discretionary spending.

  • “We have seen the biggest decline in consumer confidence kind of ever, which is really quite remarkable because so far, the economy isn't suffering all that much.”

    Paul·7:22