Ep.465: The Coming Storm: Why 2026 Looks a Lot Like 1914 | Odd Arne Westad

Bullish:

• $DEFENSE - Great power conflict risk at highest levels since Cold War height, driving defense spending and military preparedness globally.

  • “I think we are at the stage now, right now, where the potential for great power war is higher than it's been at any point since the height of the Cold War.”

    Odd·1:31:35

  • “I think, obviously it's necessary to be prepared for all kinds of military or strategic eventualities. I have no quibble with that whatsoever. I think, you think about US military power overall today, rightly employed, it is one of the greatest deterrents against war on a global scale that we have”

    Odd·1:05:39
• $INFRA - Critical infrastructure vulnerability and interconnectedness creates massive investment need for security and resilience.

  • “We are so interconnected. So many systems have been jacked into the internet and they weren't built with vulnerability in mind, with security in mind. That if war were to break out, one could imagine that so many of the systems that sustain life could easily come apart”

    Demetri·1:15:52

  • “I think in ways that we had never seen in modern warfare at all because of the degree to which all of these systems are integrated, I think the overall level of destruction would just be almost unfathomable”

    Odd·1:16:51
• $ENERGY - Energy infrastructure identified as prime target for terrorism and conflict, creating security premium for energy assets.

  • “attempts at hitting the energy producing networks, attempts at hijacking a nuclear power plant. I mean you can all sort of imagine these kinds of scenarios”

    Odd·1:09:58

Bearish:

• $GLOBALIZATION - Multipolar world with rising tensions and protectionism reversing decades of globalization and international trade.

  • “It was a period that had been preceded by a rapid increase in globalisation, so on international trade and international finance, which had reached a level by 1913 that was higher than it's ever been since”

    Odd·27:47

  • “there were lots of people who were saying that this globalisation had not worked for them, right? And particularly people in the leading countries who were saying, know, loss of jobs, loss of economic opportunity”

    Odd·28:18

  • “most striking one is of course how some leading politicians in Britain prior to 1914 had decided that this globalisation that Britain had been key in setting up really wasn't working for them or working for the British people”

    Odd·49:46
• $CHINA - Taiwan conflict risk and deteriorating US-China relations threaten Chinese assets and economic stability.

  • “the theme that came up more often than not was that time for reunification is running out, that China needs to do something to reunify its motherland in this generation”

    Odd·1:22:41

  • “Taiwan is the most dangerous one because it is a kind of trap, which it could be easy to move into believing that the other side would not act and then end up in a shooting war simply because of the military strategy within a few hours”

    Odd·1:24:19

  • “This situation is not going to improve by itself. On the contrary, if left to its own devices, it's going to be considerably worse two years from now than what it is today”

    Odd·1:28:28
• $STABILITY - System-wide instability with no hegemon willing to maintain order, paralleling pre-WWI breakdown.

  • “the sense that the center does not hold, that there is no power within that international system that would be able to work, if not as a hegemon, then as a balancer of how that system came to unfold”

    Odd·50:41

  • “doesn't seem to me that things are moving in a more stabilizing direction, it's rather the opposite”

    Odd·1:32:14