$OIL - Rory’s core view is that the Hormuz shock is strongly bullish for crude and especially middle distillates. The US is relatively advantaged because of domestic production and locked-in Canadian supply, so some US producers/refiners benefit, even though consumers still get hit.
$SHALE - At ~$100 crude, shale responds. But this is not an immediate call: he says sustained prices for another month or two would likely restart drilling, with barrels arriving on a ~6–9 month lag.
Bearish:
$OIL - The crisis accelerates electrification and fuel substitution, especially in Asia, making it long-term bearish for petroleum demand.