How to Win a Trade War | Chad Bown

How to Win a Trade War | Chad Bown – Hidden Forces

Market views

Bearish

GLOBALTRADE— The open international trading system is breaking down as major economies become increasingly walled off from each other through protectionism and trade wars, with success determined by shrinking other countries' pieces rather than expanding the overall pie.
AUTOS— China's dominance in rare earths and permanent magnets (90% of world supply) creates severe vulnerability for automobile manufacturers, as demonstrated when China cut off supplies threatening to shut down the global auto industry.
CHINADEPENDENCE— China's dual circulation strategy aims to make Western economies dependent on Chinese supply chains while China remains independent, with increasing willingness to weaponize this dependency as demonstrated in rare earths and permanent magnets.

Not investment advice.