Dylan Patel - The Infinite Demand for Tokens, Claude Mythos, and Supply Constraints - [Invest Like the Best, EP.468] – Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Dylan Patel - The Infinite Demand for Tokens, Claude Mythos, and Supply Constraints - [Invest Like the Best, EP.468]
Bullish and bearish opinions expressed in this episode, paired with supporting transcript quotes. The quote confirms what was said—not whether the opinion is correct.
Bullish
$ANTHROPIC— Anthropic's revenue is exploding from $900M to $4B ARR with 72%+ gross margins as demand for their frontier AI models vastly exceeds supply.
$AILABS— AI labs will continue to have expanding margins as the economic value their models deliver grows faster than infrastructure can scale to serve tokens.
$NVDA— NVIDIA maintains 75% gross margins with extending GPU useful life to 7-8 years and rising prices on renewals as demand vastly exceeds supply.
$MU— Memory prices will double or triple from current levels as AI demand requires stealing capacity from other uses through demand destruction via higher pricing.
$TSM— TSMC will spend $100 billion on CapEx by 2028 as they struggle to meet explosive demand for logic chips, creating massive opportunities for their equipment suppliers.
$ASML— ASML is completely sold out with expanding margins as semiconductor equipment demand explodes to meet AI infrastructure buildout.
$LRCX— Semiconductor equipment companies like Lam Research will benefit from TSMC's massive CapEx expansion as the supply chain tail whip effect intensifies.
$AMAT— Applied Materials will benefit from the semiconductor equipment supply chain bottleneck as TSMC ramps to potentially $100B in annual CapEx.
Bearish
$ALTDATA— Traditional information services businesses will be commoditized as AI enables small teams to replicate what took hundreds of people years to build.