Dylan Patel - The Infinite Demand for Tokens, Claude Mythos, and Supply Constraints - [Invest Like the Best, EP.468] – Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Dylan Patel - The Infinite Demand for Tokens, Claude Mythos, and Supply Constraints - [Invest Like the Best, EP.468]
$ANTHROPIC - Anthropic's revenue is exploding from $900M to $4B ARR with 72%+ gross margins as demand for their frontier AI models vastly exceeds supply.
$AILABS - AI labs will continue to have expanding margins as the economic value their models deliver grows faster than infrastructure can scale to serve tokens.
$NVDA - NVIDIA maintains 75% gross margins with extending GPU useful life to 7-8 years and rising prices on renewals as demand vastly exceeds supply.
$MU - Memory prices will double or triple from current levels as AI demand requires stealing capacity from other uses through demand destruction via higher pricing.
$TSM - TSMC will spend $100 billion on CapEx by 2028 as they struggle to meet explosive demand for logic chips, creating massive opportunities for their equipment suppliers.
$ASML - ASML is completely sold out with expanding margins as semiconductor equipment demand explodes to meet AI infrastructure buildout.
$LRCX - Semiconductor equipment companies like Lam Research will benefit from TSMC's massive CapEx expansion as the supply chain tail whip effect intensifies.
$AMAT - Applied Materials will benefit from the semiconductor equipment supply chain bottleneck as TSMC ramps to potentially $100B in annual CapEx.
Bearish:
$ALTDATA - Traditional information services businesses will be commoditized as AI enables small teams to replicate what took hundreds of people years to build.