Gavin Baker - AI Market Jitters - [Invest Like the Best, EP.485]
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Gavin, it's only been two months. Like the model release cycles, the gap between our podcast episodes are shortening. We're we're basically you and I are basically on a model release cadence at this point.
Well, I was I was sensitive to criticism that I think somebody pointed out that our podcasts were coincident with, like, local market peaks, and nobody could say that after this.
What's on your mind? It's been a crazy
Yeah. I would describe July as 2022 in a month. Yeah. There are some fundamental negatives, which which we should talk. But on the whole, the balance of fundamentals, I think, is improving significantly. Loads of AI names are down 60% from their highs. We'll call it 40% to 60% in a month in a straight line. And I asked you before we started, you've been out here for the summer, have you heard a single negative quantitative metric about AI, a single instance of deceleration? Nothing. Nothing. In fact, every metric is accelerating.
And to your point, not just blind optimism from people excited about AI, like, here's some data that they can show you from their different vantage points.
Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, however you cut it, whether you cut GPU availability, whether you cut GPU rental pricing, I mean, whether you cut, like, the spot price of DRAM this month, token growth, everything is actually accelerated. And I do think a big part of the problem is, one, the market does not have visibility into Anthropic OpenAI, and then I would say these open source inference clouds that monetize inference here in America, Fireworks based to Modal together. And the picture looks very different when you see that because open source has accelerated massively because of GLM 5.2, Kibi k
That was the catalyst. Well, yeah combination of things.
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