Eurasia Group on Geopolitics and New Trade Order
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Welcome to nonconsensus investing. I'm Ram Oluwalia, your host and CIO at Lumida Wealth, where we specialize in the craft of alternative investments. At Lumida, we help guide clients through the intricacies of managing wealth so they don't have to shoulder the burden alone. Through this podcast, we draw back the curtain to reveal the strategies employed by the best in the business for their clients so that you too can invest beyond the ordinary. Perfect. Alright. Terrific. And we are live. I am pleased to introduce our next guest, Rob Khan from Eurasia Group on this episode of Lumida nonconsen
first of all, thanks for having me on. As I was gonna know, it's a long winded one. That one suggests I'm actually an economist at a at an organization filled with political analysts. Eurasia Group is the largest political advisory. We have clients that are investors. We have corporations. We have nonprofits. We even advise governments. And so all of that reflects a broad mandate to help investors navigate a global economy that's increasingly buffeted by geopolitics. And what we do my my job in some sense is to think about the so whats. When there are big geopolitical disruptions, think about
on the foot chair. Yep.
And today as well. That's right. The number of times in the last couple weeks I've made a out a forecast or produce an analysis that became outdated over the course of the day is pretty frustrating. %. But sometimes, look, we're looking at longer term scenarios, trying to think down the road and how the world's gonna be different in three or five or ten years, and that's an also important and challenging part of the process. That's what we do for the people we work with. Perfect.
And some of the topics, just to orient the audience, we're gonna get into China, US, trade war, tariffs, how do they compare to Smoot Hawley, investor reactions, how are Europeans reacting? We'll talk about China, Taiwan. And so there's there's really quite a lot to get into here. I'll get started with this chart sharing my screen here. Help us understand. This is a chart showing The current US tariff levels versus
history. Yeah. No. What that tells you is we are in really an unprecedented moment. Right? That president Trump is seeking to rewire global trade and finance and seeking it to do it at light at light speed. Right? And that is an experiment we've not tried. The announcements of tariffs on Liberation Day on April 2 when even beyond our pessimistic assumptions, our aggressive assumptions at the time
I can be on everyone's pessimistic assumptions exceeded. Yeah.
No. I think that's right. In some ways, he told us this, but I think there was a feeling that that he would temper that and take into account the risks to the marketplace. But in the end, he put in place or announced an intention to put in place tariffs that would have taken the average tariff rate from around 3% at the start of his administration to, on that day, nearly 30%. Now there were some exceptions subsequently granted, and that continues to be the case. There are certainly, as we speak, negotiations going on in Washington that could give some further concessions to some countries. But
you say all US goods, this means carving out exemptions for semiconductors and out of products. Okay. So on everything else. So Everything
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