HF Manager Skyler Weinand on Tariffs & The Housing Market
Episode publishedPodcast: Lumida Wealth : Non-Consensus...Lumida Wealth : Non-Consensus Invest Beyond the Ordinary
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Welcome to nonconsensus investing. I'm Ram Aluwalia, your host and CIO at Lumida Wealth, where we specialize in the craft of alternative investments. At Lumida, we help guide clients through the intricacies of managing wealth so they don't have to shoulder the burden alone. Through this podcast, we draw back the curtain to reveal the strategies employed by the best in the business for their clients so that you too can invest beyond the ordinary. Alright. Good morning. It is Thursday, 11:30AM. I'm joined by my friend, Skyler. Skyler, we've had on Lumida nonconsensus investing, I wanna say, abou
You whatever you want. CLOs, bonds, the interest rates, inflation, the curve, you name it. Private credit, we can talk about private credit. As
well. Let's see how much ground we can cover in the next hour or so. And as you listen, if you have any questions, just post them here. Look. Let's start off with tariffs. The admin rolled out a tariff package that exceeded everyone's kinda worst case set of expectations. Markets gap down, continue to sell off where we stand today. And, there's a lot of there's a lot of surprise out there. There's some reporting on Twitter that the tariff calculation was based on GPT four using it really didn't make any sense. Yeah. Help us unpack what we've seen today and kinda your read of the situation.
Yeah. You start off with this calculation first, which I've read numerous reports. It was really just based on trade deficits. And you take Vietnam, for example, which I think was the the biggest hit. It was something like what was it? 67 or 75% tariff. And it gets me to thinking, like, okay. What we're not really taking into account here is that a dollar goes a much longer way in Vietnam than it does in United States. Right? So how on earth are we gonna expect Vietnam to buy the same amount of US goods that we buy of Vietnam goods, Vietnamese goods? It's wacky. And then you start thinking abo
That's an American business that's importing from Vietnam. And he's paying he's paying the price. He's paying the duties at point of import.
His business, his margins go from probable and we're not including what he's paying for labor and warehouse and taxes and and fixed expenses in The US. He's gonna pay it. We're like, hey. You're selling this for a hundred bucks. You're buying it for 30 or $40. You still have even if it costs you $70, you're still making you go from maybe making a 15% margin to making a negative 15% margin. Because, yeah,
the fixed costs.
Yeah. So now the business is alright. I'm done. Okay? So the administration solution is you've had sixty days to find a US manufacturer of the same thing. And if you bought it from a US and, like, good luck. You have these supply chains that take eighteen to twenty four months to set up, even if you're Apple. Bare minimum, it's gonna take you nine months to set up that supply chain. Years.
Years.
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