Is AI a Bubble?

Bullish:

• $NVDA - Despite ecosystem challenges, Nvidia will continue to sell every GPU they produce due to insatiable demand, with everything TSMC can make for them getting sold.

  • “I also at the same time believe NVIDIA will sell out of every single GPU. I have a 100% believe they'll do that.”

    Ram·26:34

  • “I am in the boat that the GPUs, everything that all of these TSMC can make for NVIDIA, everything will get sold and used.”

    Michael·35:55
• $TSM - TSMC is the disciplined 'adult in the room' with strong performance, outpacing Nvidia's returns and maintaining capital discipline despite massive demand.

  • “I think TSMC is relatively okay, at least for this year and into next year.”

    Michael·35:00

  • “they're disciplined. So they're actually the biggest grown up in this picture.”

    Michael·35:33

  • “TSM in the last year, by way, is up 85%, far outpacing Nvidia, which is up 35% in the last year.”

    Ram·36:35
• $AAPL - Apple is well-positioned as AI moves to local devices, has been conservative with capital spending, and could step in as a buyer of AI infrastructure at better prices.

  • “Apple is in the catbird seat in terms of AI applications beyond ChatGPT.”

    Michael·27:59

  • “Apple is shrewd in capital management.”

    Ram·27:44

  • “we should not rule them out as being a potential buyer of last resort at a potentially better price of some of this stuff.”

    Michael·29:24
• $ENERGY - Secular bull case for energy infrastructure as AI compute demands will require far more electricity than current analyst estimates anticipate.

  • “I'm kind of a secular bull on energy and on electricity.”

    Michael·51:01

  • “we are going to need far more energy.”

    Michael·51:25

  • “the analysts are underestimating the energy demands.”

    Ram·53:22

Bearish:

• $OPENAI - OpenAI's fantastical revenue projections are unrealistic with unsustainable burn rates, and they face bankruptcy risk if growth doesn't meet aggressive 10x targets.

  • “if we're wrong on our assumptions on the mainframe worldview of the world, we're two years away from bankruptcy”

    Michael·6:14

  • “700,000,000,000 this year, the four companies.”

    Michael·6:58

  • “10x growth means that Anthropic expects that next month they'll generate and achieve all of the revenue that Anthropic achieved in the last ten months, which is absurd.”

    Ram·16:39
• $ANTHROPIC - Anthropic's trillion-dollar revenue forecasts are fantastical and ahead of their skis, with the company admitting bankruptcy risk if assumptions are wrong.

  • “I was surprised that he was talking about fantastical numbers like a trillion dollars in revenue potential in five years.”

    Ram·2:50

  • “I think the projections are ahead of their skis.”

    Michael·15:10

  • “they're way ahead of their skis.”

    Ram·17:09
• $MSFT - Microsoft faces massive revenue performance obligations that the market is treating as liabilities, with stock already below 200-day moving average.

  • “Microsoft reported that they had $400,000,000,000 in revenue performance obligations.”

    Ram·17:27

  • “Microsoft stock price dropped 10% as if the market discounted the value of those RPOs and is treating them as liabilities or certainly worth a lot less than par value.”

    Ram·17:44

  • “Microsoft is below the two hundred day moving average”

    Ram·23:08
• $ORCL - Oracle has $455 billion in revenue performance obligations largely tied to OpenAI, creating significant default risk exposure.

  • “Oracle has, by the way, dollars $455,000,000,000 in revenue performance obligations.”

    Ram·20:48

  • “And a lot of that is OpenAI.”

    Michael·20:56

  • “Oracle is way below it, and in a in a severe bear market.”

    Ram·23:12
• $MU - Micron is overbought and crowded with more risk than opportunity, showing unsustainable correlation with silver prices.

  • “My view is that it's overbought. It's crowded. I think there's more risk there than opportunity.”

    Ram·42:09

  • “I find it funny that it's just Micron and silver are correlated when silver is an input to Micron. Both of those can't go up into the right at the same time.”

    Ram·42:36
• $TSLA - Tesla is pivoting away from cars with multiple models discontinued, unrealistic robotaxi and robot valuations, and is essentially a meme stock.

  • “Tesla You is the mother of all meme stocks.”

    Michael·1:06:02

  • “he's getting out of the car business. It was obviously a year ago. Two of his four models are gone.”

    Michael·1:06:09

  • “you can't pivot a trillion dollar business in public”

    Ram·1:06:46