Warsh, Iran, Gold, and the Death of Everything You Thought Was Safe

Bullish:

• $COMCAST - Ram sees Comcast as a bond substitute with 19% free cash flow yield, up 28% YTD, calling it undervalued despite being a 'dinosaur company'.

  • “This is the free cash flow yield of Comcast. Comcast is a dinosaur company that, you know, was in the cable business. People have been cord cutting, but they own things like NBC Universal and take a look. I mean, it's got 19% free cash flow yield.”

    Ram·28:59

  • “The stock is up 28% year to date. This is one of our stocking stuffer kind of limited twenty twenty six stock picks.”

    Ram·29:22

  • “Comcast, this is a company, it's an old guard dinosaur company. I'll be the first to call it a dinosaur company. It's outrunning Bitcoin.”

    Ram·59:41
• $INTL - Ram strongly advocates for international markets, citing massive outperformance versus US equities across multiple countries.

  • “I do see a lot of opportunity in Japan as well as international markets. We have several points of exposure at least in Japan. We have high single digit exposure in Japan. So we like that market. We like that in a lot of international markets too.”

    Ram·6:05

  • “Santander, leading bank in Spain is up 130% in the last twelve months. Spain, the country, just buying the ETF, buying the S and P in Spain is up 80%.”

    Ram·1:03:04

  • “South Korea is up 130% in a year, 33% in the last three months. Greece is up 87% in a year, 20% in the last three months. Brazil is up 57% in a year, 20% in the last three months. Mexico is up 65% in a year, 21% in the last three months.”

    Ram·2:09:28

  • “I would own a lot of international stocks for the next year. And then we reassess at year end.”

    Ram·1:58:05
• $INSURANCE - Ram identifies insurance as an AI-proof category with regulatory moat, positive expected value, and acts as a hedge when stocks drop.

  • “Insurance is an AI proof category. That's good. It's got a moat from regulation.”

    Ram·2:23:33

  • “when stocks drop, insurance companies rally, that's happening and they have positive expected value. I mean, it's not a hedge that has a carry cost per se. You're expected to make money on the hedge. That's a great hedge. That's a cheap hedge. It's a hedge that pays for itself”

    Ram·2:24:00

  • “I don't see anyone talking about insurance. That's a great non consensus idea.”

    Ram·2:24:20
• $SENIORLIVING - Ram sees senior living facilities as an obvious secular trend following baby boomer demographics, suggesting private market opportunities.

  • “follow the baby boomers. What are the baby boomers spending on and what do they need? Travel and leisure. Cruises, for example. They're spending money on restaurants. Health care. Nursing homes.”

    Ram·2:24:46

  • “The move to make is buying nursing homes, senior living care facilities in private markets and just take them public.”

    Ram·2:25:18

  • “Why would you invest in venture capital or invest in senior living care? That's an obvious, obvious trend.”

    Ram·2:26:10

  • “This is a high conviction thesis for me. It's a ten to twenty year secular trend.”

    Ram·2:27:23

Bearish:

• $TREASURIES - Ram strongly argues against owning US treasuries, calling them a bubble with poor risk/reward given inflation and rising rate pressures.

  • “I don't know why people own sovereign debt, especially US treasuries. There's a few bubbles out there. One is The US sovereign debt bubble.”

    Ram·21:59

  • “I don't know why people own treasuries unless you're gonna close on a mortgage next month, which family offices aren't. It makes no sense.”

    Ram·21:59

  • “owning treasuries that are going from a 4% rate down to 3% in an environment where inflation is 2.8% doesn't make any sense. It's obviously a bad decision.”

    Ram·22:26

  • “Owning a sovereign debt and owning US treasuries has got to be a really stupid asset allocation decision. There are many alternatives to owning US debt, many alternatives to owning US debt.”

    Ram·24:02
• $OPENAI - Ram identifies OpenAI stock as one of two clear bubbles in the market alongside US treasuries.

  • “There's a few bubbles out there. One is The US sovereign debt bubble. Another is OpenAI stock. There are two bubbles that are easy to identify.”

    Ram·22:04
• $BTC - Ram sold all crypto, believes Bitcoin is meant to be traded not held, sees it as a momentum asset in bear market territory.

  • “So I sold all my crypto. I'm out. I'm out.”

    Ram·52:41

  • “a digital currency like Bitcoin is meant to be traded, not huddled.”

    Ram·47:26

  • “we said Bitcoin is in a bear market along with other digital assets sometime after this IPO debt debacle”

    Ram·48:05

  • “Bitcoin has sold off along with other high beta names like Palantir, like Robinhood, like, you know, small cap growth stocks, like IPOs, like robotics.”

    Ram·48:58
• $TSLA - Ram calls Tesla insanely overvalued with PE of 393, noting it's cutting models and facing competition from Nvidia.

  • “Tesla Sure. Their trailing PE is three ninety three and the four PE is 200. It's insane. This is insane. This is numbers that don't make any sense.”

    Ram·1:59:22

  • “Tesla is cutting the Model X and the Model X.”

    Ram·1:59:39

  • “Tesla's done about the return of the S and P over the last twelve months, except with a lot much a lot more volatility.”

    Ram·1:59:53
• $VC - Ram sees a bubble in venture capital with companies raising at ever higher valuations while public comparables trade at lows.

  • “There's a bubble in venture capital. Crypto is a type of venture capital. It is liquid venture capital.”

    Ram·59:16

  • “Venture capital is a bubble. We talked a little about that earlier. It's Databricks, which is a SaaS company raised at an ever higher valuation. Meanwhile, SaaS valuations are as low as they've ever been.”

    Ram·1:51:19

  • “There's a bubble in venture capital. There's a bubble in private markets. If you have the ability to go sell your venture capital at private stock, you should go sell.”

    Ram·59:16
• $HIGHBETA - Ram repeatedly emphasizes high beta thematic stocks are in a bear market and should be avoided.

  • “high beta thematics in a bear market. Robinhood bear market, Palantir bear market, uranium, Centrus Energy bear market. This is the time to do opposite.”

    Ram·2:07:49

  • “High beta is done. With a common theme I'm hearing is high beta, hot thematics. That's in a bear market.”

    Ram·2:07:17