“I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome Portfolio – Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

“I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome Portfolio – Monetary Matters with Jack Farley — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

TLT— Jared is insanely bullish on long-term bonds, believing 5.2-5.3% on 30-year treasuries is an incredible deal. He has personally moved a huge portion of his money into bonds as a 3-5 year trade, arguing inflation is coming down, economic data is weakening, and deficit concerns are overblown.
INTC— Jared identifies Intel as one of the stocks that looks like it's bottoming based on his chart analysis of the top 50 S&P stocks.
ORCL— Jared identifies Oracle as bottoming based on his technical chart analysis.
GLD— Jared is cautiously bullish on gold long-term, believing that if payrolls data continues to weaken, the gold trade will reverse higher and recent weakness will prove temporary.

Bearish

NVDA— Jared believes NVIDIA and other semiconductor stocks are topping based on chart analysis. He's waiting for the second derivative of growth to change (growth rate declining from 70% to 60% or 50%) as the signal that semiconductor stocks will top.
AMD— Jared identifies AMD as one of the semiconductor names that appears to be topping based on his chart analysis.
JPM— Jared explicitly called JPMorgan a good short on his podcast, identifying it as part of the financial sector that is topping based on chart analysis.
GS— Jared identifies Goldman Sachs as topping with a particularly scary chart pattern among the broker-dealers.
MS— Jared identifies Morgan Stanley as topping with very scary chart patterns among broker-dealers.
WFC— Jared identifies Wells Fargo as part of the financial sector that appears to be topping based on chart analysis.
JNJ— Jared identifies Johnson & Johnson as part of the healthcare sector that appears to be topping based on his chart analysis.
PE— Jared remains bearish on private equity and private credit, believing they are connected to the AI bubble and will take a long time to unwind due to illiquidity. He states we have not found the bottom yet.
AILABS— Jared believes AI is in a bubble, citing unprecedented debt financing of tech assets with short lifespans at high interest rates, and connects it to the broader private credit bubble that will eventually unwind.

Not investment advice.