“Not Until May” The Real Timeline for Controlling the Strait of Hormuz | Nadia Martin Wiggen Svelland Capital

Bullish:

• $ENERGY - Oil prices expected to rise significantly due to Strait of Hormuz closure cutting off 13 million barrels per day of production, with physical markets already pricing Dubai at $166/barrel.

  • “while the strait is closed, we are losing 13,000,000 barrels per day of production out of the region. Right? That's what's been shut in in our estimate.”

    Nadia·5:31

  • “This morning, we had Dubai pricing at $166 a barrel.”

    Nadia·8:45

  • “the Brent price could accelerate based on where we were on Friday night, for example, to $130 a barrel. And it still incentivizes a refiner to buy that oil, run it, and create diesel and gasoline because we have not hit a demand destruction number yet.”

    Nadia·13:15
• $NATGAS - US natural gas production has spare capacity and will benefit from increased LNG demand as Europe and Asia scramble for alternatives to Middle East supply.

  • “Henry Hub is pricing just shy of $3 per MMBtu this morning. We don't even have the Marcellus going at peak production. That's this enormous shale patch. So we have excess capacity that with a price signal, you know, maybe $3 $4 definitely $4.5 that would come online.”

    Nadia·30:17

  • “We need as much LNG as possible out of The US as quickly as possible.”

    Nadia·37:56