Stacy Rasgon: “Demand Is Off The Charts” in Semiconductors… And Set To Double Again Soon
Episode publishedPodcast: Monetary Matters with Jack Far...Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Transcript preview
Preview only
This episode is brought to you by Sirmaya Partners who manages the return to tangible ETF LENS, ticker l e n s, the Sirmaya thematic ETF built for a return to tangibles. Learn more at sirmayaetf.com and see the show notes for disclosures. Let's get into it. Got a very special conversation. I'm joined by Stacy Raskin, managing director and senior analyst of US Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment at Bernstein Research. Obviously, with semiconductors powering AI, this is an extremely important topic. Stacy is very in demand. Really appreciate you coming on, Stacy. Thank you.
Oh, it's good to be here. Thank you.
Stacy, wanna start with a little conundrum we have in the market. There's some things I'm having trouble understanding or squaring, which is that the earnings in the semiconductor sector are up about a 100% roughly, but the sector's earnings multiple is down. And as, you know, semiconductor stocks are still well below their June highs, what does the market know or maybe fear that the numbers and the estimates aren't showing?
I I mean, look. Semiconductors typically are a cyclical industry, and investors tend to think about that, like, as the stocks are moving. And, as investors start to worry that we're getting closer to a peak, beats on the earnings front tend to get rewarded less and less, and so you start to see the multiples come down. So that is not an atypical behavior if you're approaching a cycle peak. I think that's what the stocks in some sense are telling you that we may be approaching. Now that being said, it sort of begs the question, what if we're not? And I would argue that at least at this point, f
So the fundamentals are still looking solid. Your estimates are still high and raising, and the same is true of the street.
Tell me broadly going up and up and up. Yeah. Yeah.
Stacy, tell us about the fundamentals that you're seeing. I know you just, you know, went on a roadshow talking to all the big semiconductor companies. What are their base case? What they're guiding to? And where if they outperform or underperform those benchmarks, what would that cause of that be? So I guess what is kind of the upside and downside to what you're hearing from the semiconductor community?
Yeah. You bet. And so you're you're right. We did just go on a roadshow. I do this once a year up in Silicon Valley in September, and we think we saw 11 companies over two days. I mean, look, the universal sort of takeaway from everybody is everybody sounds great. Right? Demand is off the charts and visibility is triggered. By the way, I understand why that worries people. My general belief is that semiconductor company manager needs actual visibility. What's really going on is zero. They're at the back of the supply chain. What they see are the orders in front of their face. I never try to fo
I happen to be listening to, like, a a Lamb Investor Day, and this guy sounded like a very conservative person, but he said, like, this literally the best we've ever seen in in terms of the demand signal. So I'm sure you and the other analysts are are encountering that sentiment often.
Keep exploring with a free account.
A free account preserves the short preview. Upgrade to Pro for the full transcript and episode chat.