Things Are Going to Get Even Crazier: The Macro Regime Shift | Andreas Steno Larsen – Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Things Are Going to Get Even Crazier: The Macro Regime Shift | Andreas Steno Larsen – Monetary Matters with Jack Farley — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

INDIA— India is the only emerging market showing accelerating growth due to removal of secondary tariffs and ability to buy Russian oil. Strong cargo export data and beneficiary of SCOTUS ruling on tariffs.
SEMIS— Semiconductors are driving inflation through scarce supply and intact pricing power with near 100% GPU utilization. AI trade creates persistent PPI pressures and momentum is backed by earnings.
MU— Micron is not expensive from forward P/E perspective despite strong price action. Momentum trade backed by earnings with strong semiconductor export data from Korea.
ENERGY— Energy is one of two components driving up costs alongside AI. Can work in tandem with AI in portfolio as both are inflationary forces.
HPQ— HP and companies with strong supply chains and pricing power to pass on semiconductor price increases to consumers positioned for strong second half. Underappreciated value trade in US consumer-facing companies.
WOLF— Wolfspeed up over 150% on month as pricing power moves to lower margin semiconductor companies in power space. Sign of late cycle but still has room to run.
BANKS— Commercial banks thrive when yield curve steepens as they borrow short and lend long. Steeper curve enables credit creation outside central banks, as demonstrated by Japan's Nikkei rally alongside rising yields.

Bearish

EM— Emerging markets facing dual shock of energy supply shock and strong dollar. China and LATAM losing pace in growth data. Strong dollar is worst thing for EM trade.
LATAM— Latin America getting worst of both worlds with strong dollar and fading energy price momentum. Brazil struggling despite being oil exporter.
TSLA— Tesla suffering from lack of momentum in robotaxi trade. Real-world implementation of AI in robotics not making progress yet, with Waymo showing more momentum.
ROBOTICS— Robotics trade has been terrible this year with limited real-world implementation. Industrial robotics and AI implementation not happening this cycle.
QUANTUMCOMPUTING— Quantum computing names like Rigetti are momentum trades without earnings and no prospects of earnings for years. Valuation impossible to determine without fundamentals.

Not investment advice.