Things Are Going to Get Even Crazier: The Macro Regime Shift | Andreas Steno Larsen
Episode publishedPodcast: Monetary Matters with Jack Far...Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Transcript preview
Preview only
I think the semiconductor cycle will roll over towards the end of the year or early next year, but I think we have the euphoric part of ahead of us before we get to that part. Having said that, a wave of IPOs is always a late cycle signal, and I still think it is very likely that this is the final year of the cycle. My key message going into this year, it can become crazier than what we've already seen, and I think it will be a lot crazier before we turn.
Today's episode is brought to you by the unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF, ticker HFGM. Later in the show, you'll hear more about HFGM, currently the number one Morningstar rated fund since its inception in The US macro trading category. Let's get into it.
We have a great interview today. I'm Max Sweetie, and I'm joined by Andreas Stino Larsen, former hedge fund manager and editor of Real Vision's Macro Research. Andreas, thank you for joining us today.
Thanks for having me, Max.
It feels like we are in a macro shift right now. Just a few months ago, we were all talking about how we're gonna get a new Fed chair. We were gonna get rate cuts. Now inflation has reared its head, and the new Fed chair is going to have a hard time pushing rate cuts through and the market is even starting to price in hikes. Help us make sense of this big regime change.
Well, just before we started recording here, we had Chris Waller out stating that he's willing to at least abandon the easing bias of the official communication of the Federal Reserve at the June meeting. So that's kind of kind of a big deal. He was, at least until a few days ago, seen as one of Trump's loyal lieutenants within the committee. Right? So it will be kind of a difficult job for Kevin Walsh to keep that easing bias intact in in a few weeks from now in June. Having said that, I still consider this inflation wave to be fairly isolated to everything that comes out of the Strait Of The
Does that mean you think that the risk reward actually is fading this sell off in bonds?
Yeah, I actually think so. To me, the most undervalued scenario is that Kevin Walsh will decide even with quite a few members probably not supporting it to say that, well, we'll have to be patient here. The administration is working on a solution to this inflation problem, and it will be temporary of nature in case they settle on a deal with Iran. We still hold high hopes around that, blah, blah, blah. So a new version of the transitory narrative of Jay Powell, with maybe slightly better hopes of an actual resolution to the inflation issue here.
Okay, so team transitory potentially coming back around. Does he have the votes for that, though?
Keep exploring with a free account.
A free account preserves the short preview. Upgrade to Pro for the full transcript and episode chat.