Top IPO Scholar on Unprecedented IPO Wave & Why IPOs Underperform the Market | Jay Ritter – Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Top IPO Scholar on Unprecedented IPO Wave & Why IPOs Underperform the Market | Jay Ritter – Monetary Matters with Jack Farley — Transcript

Market views

Bullish

SPACEX— SpaceX has demonstrated world-class rocket launching and highly profitable Starlink satellite business. Future Starship technology could dramatically lower launch costs, expanding Starlink's addressable market with attractive profit margins.
AI— AI will be highly disruptive and beneficial to consumers and workers through increased efficiency and productivity gains. The main benefits of technological change historically flow to consumers through lower prices and improved standards of living rather than capital owners.

Bearish

SPACEX— SpaceX went public at a price-to-sales ratio over 90x. Companies with high price-to-sales ratios and significant revenue have historically underperformed on average. The valuation requires $100 billion in annual after-tax profits at a 20x P/E, which only a handful of companies have achieved.
SAAS— Software-as-a-service companies are facing widespread view that AI is threatening their business models. The IPO market for SaaS has been depressed with not many companies going public in this sector.
BIOTECH— Biotech IPO activity has declined significantly. There haven't been a lot of biotech companies going public this year, indicating reduced enthusiasm for the sector.
VC— Venture capital has seen massive capital inflows that have bid up prices, reducing expected returns. The illiquidity premium has likely been arbitraged away to near zero. Recent LP returns have not been especially high on average.
PE— Private equity has experienced similar capital inflows as venture capital, bidding up prices and reducing expected returns. The illiquidity premium that justified allocations has likely been eliminated.
DATACENTER— Data centers on Earth are a much more competitive business without enormous profit margins. SpaceX's spending on terrestrial data centers faces competitive pressures that limit profitability.

Not investment advice.